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The probability of interest rate cuts in Europe and the US is rising. How will the RMB move? 10 billion private equity release reminder

Securities Times · Nov 10, 2023 10:00

来源：券商中国

作者：长留

两周多来，全球资本市场已从暂停加息中，转向了预期中的第一轮降息。

美国时间周二，10年期美债收益率收盘报价4.5790%，较10月23日盘中高点5.0210%，17天内下滑了442个基点。而对海外市场利率敏感的港股科技、医药等细分赛道反弹尤为明显，涨幅近10%，资金流入明显。

对此，业内多家私募管理人认为，欧美降息的概率在稳步提高，一旦得到后续数据的确认，未来人民币贬值的压力会大幅减轻，全球资本的流动也会重新开始。

而从已经披露完毕上市公司三季报业绩来看，越来越多的行业发展迎来了向上拐点。此时，市场反弹动能强劲，投资者应该关注一些“非对称性”机会。

第一轮降息要来？欧美市场降息预期升温

美国长端利率持续下行，10年期美债收益率周二再度下跌8个基点。随着最近几周，全球主要央行暂停了加息周期，最新的数据显示经济正在走软，市场正在将注意力转向第一轮降息。

美国时间周二，10年期美债收益率收盘报价4.5790%，再度下跌8个基点，跌幅1.65%。当前收盘价已经较10月23日盘中高点5.0210%，17天内下滑了442个基点。上周11月2日，美联储议息会议上，在9月份结束连续11次加息后，连续第二次会议在5.25%-5.5%的目标区间不变。当周，美国三大指数创下2023年最大单周涨幅。目前，市场对美联储结束加息的押注维持在90%高位，预计明年美联储将降息100基点。

相对于美债市场收益率的快速下降，金融市场对欧洲央行降息预期来得也非常猛烈，市场押注欧央行将成为第一个放宽货币政策为经济提供缓冲的主要央行，预期欧洲央行在4月前降息25个基点的可能性约为80%。

欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯8日表示，欧央行可能会在2024年下半年开始降息，不过他补充称，这是个人估计，并非任何决定。此前，欧元区9月PPI同比创历史最大降幅，且为连续第五个月下降，欧洲整体经济景气度持续降温。

人民币开始筑底，迟来的周期终将来临

欧美市场降息预期攀升，会给国内资本市场带来什么影响？百亿私募仁桥资产投资总监夏俊杰认为，欧美加息的预期在快速降温，降息的概率在稳步提高，这种方向性的变化在美元和美债市场上反映明显，一旦得到后续数据的确认，未来人民币贬值的压力会大幅减轻，全球资本的流动也会重新开始，迟来的周期终将来临。

夏俊杰认为，中美关系近期也出现了明显的缓和。这一段时间以来，中美互动愈发频繁，中方采取了更主动更积极的姿态来改善两国关系，当前，中美各自处在完全不同的周期之中，握手言和，至少是短期对双方都是有益的，期待APEC会议上有更好的消息。

“与数月前相比，几乎所有影响市场的核心变量近期都在发生积极的变化，我们不能视而不见，量变终会引起质变，我们应该正视，也应该重视。”夏俊杰强调。

思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏认为，人民币实际有效汇率已然触及周期性低点，且市场开始计入明年美联储的四次降息。故此，人民币的历史性弱势理应开始筑底，而中美利差也应收窄。这一息差复常有望缓和资金撤离和中国资产价格的压力，并助力市场间歇性反弹和修复。

百亿私募相聚资本投资总监王建东认为，市场需要的两大契机已经来临，一个是中国迎来更大体量的财政刺激，另一个是美国利率回落给市场阶段性的投资机会。“政策对市场的托底意图非常明确，市场已经充分反映了悲观预期，随着信心逐渐得到恢复，企业盈利持续改善，我们将迎来股市的新一轮黄金期。”

关注市场“非对称性”机会

上周，美国三大指数创下2023年最大单周涨幅。与此同时，港股也自从10月24日以来持续反弹，特别是科技、医药等细分赛道反弹尤为明显，涨幅近10%，资金流入明显。11月3日，对海外利率变动较为敏感的恒生科技指数ETF(513180)基金份额达到了453.92亿份，创下历史新高，而聚焦国内互联网产业的恒生互联网ETF(513330) 基金份额也在随后不断走高，11月7日达到777.39亿份，持续刷新历史高点。

“我们预计MSCI中国指数或有将近15%的上涨空间。”摩根大通已经转为看涨中国股市，认为中国股市年底前出现技术性反弹的可能性越来越大，投资者就地缘政治、短期技术性增长和长期结构性增长等对中国的主要担忧，出现边际性改善，但尚未被市场消化。

致顺投资创始人、首席投资官刘宏认为，上市公司三季报业绩已经披露完毕。“我们看到越来越多的行业发展迎来了向上拐点，也看到越来越多产业资本出手增持和回购。从现在开始，A股市场的任何一次下跌，都将是对各类资金的诚挚邀请，而果断借机入场的投资者将可能在未来收获丰硕的回馈。”

百亿私募机构淡水泉也在最新月报中表示，企业基本面角度看，全A(非金融两油)三季度累计扣非净利润增速较二季度降幅有所收窄，净资产收益率(ROE)和毛利率呈现筑底改善迹象，企业业绩增长压力大的时候正在过去。而当前的市场环境中，很多优秀的企业受到悲观市场情绪影响，股价已经充分调整，下跌空间已相对有限，但中长期获取现金流的能力没有变弱，有的反而更强。这意味着，在情绪扭转时，股价上升的潜在空间也会很大。从一两年维度看，这是投资领域典型的“非对称性”机会。

编辑/new

Source: Broker China

Author: Nagadome

Over the past two weeks, global capital markets have moved from suspending interest rate hikes to the anticipated first round of interest rate cuts.

On Tuesday, US time, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.5790%, down 442 basis points within 17 days from an intraday high of 5.0210% on October 23. However, the rebound in the market segments of Hong Kong stocks, technology, pharmaceuticals, etc. that are sensitive to interest rates in overseas markets is particularly obvious. The increase is close to 10%, and capital inflows are obvious.

In response, many private equity managers in the industry believe that the probability of interest rate cuts in Europe and the US is steadily increasing. Once confirmed by subsequent data, the pressure to depreciate the RMB will be greatly reduced in the future, and global capital flows will begin again.

However, judging from the results of the three quarterly reports of listed companies that have been disclosed, the development of more and more industries has ushered in an upward inflection point. At this time, market rebound momentum is strong, and investors should pay attention to some “asymmetric” opportunities.

Is the first round of interest rate cuts coming? Expectations of interest rate cuts in European and American markets are heating up

Long-term US interest rates continued to decline, and 10-year US Treasury yields fell 8 basis points again on Tuesday. As the world's major central banks have suspended the interest rate hike cycle in recent weeks, the latest data shows that the economy is weakening, and the market is turning its attention to the first round of interest rate cuts.

On Tuesday, US time, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.5790%, down another 8 basis points, or 1.65%. The current closing price is 5.0210% higher than the intraday period on October 23, down 442 basis points within 17 days. Last week, on November 2, at the Fed's interest rate meeting, after 11 consecutive interest rate hikes in September, the target range of 5.25%-5.5% remained unchanged for the second time in a row. This week, the three major US indices recorded their biggest weekly gains in 2023. Currently, the market's bet on ending the Fed's interest rate hike remains at a high level of 90%. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year.

Compared to the rapid decline in US bond market yields, the financial market's expectations for the ECB to cut interest rates are also very intense. The market bets that the ECB will become the first major central bank to relax monetary policy to provide a buffer to the economy. It is expected that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by April about 80%.

ECB Governing Council member Stunaras said on the 8th that the ECB may begin cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024, but he added that this is a personal estimate, not a decision. Previously, Eurozone PPI recorded the biggest year-on-year decline in history in September, and for the fifth consecutive month of decline, the overall economic sentiment in Europe continued to cool down.

The RMB is starting to bottom out, and the belated cycle is about to come

What impact will rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the European and American markets have on domestic capital markets? Xia Junjie, investment director of Renqiao Asset, 10 billion private equity, believes that expectations of interest rate hikes in Europe and the US are rapidly cooling down, and the probability of interest rate cuts is steadily increasing. This change in direction is clearly reflected in the US dollar and US bond markets. Once confirmed by subsequent data, the pressure on future RMB depreciation will be greatly reduced, and global capital flows will begin again, and the delayed cycle will eventually arrive.

Xia Junjie believes that Sino-US relations have also clearly eased recently. Over this period, the interaction between China and the US has become more frequent, and China has adopted a more proactive and active attitude to improve relations between the two countries. Currently, China and the US are each in a completely different cycle. Shaking hands and making peace is beneficial to both sides, at least in the short term. We look forward to better news at the APEC meeting.

“Compared with a few months ago, almost all of the core variables affecting the market have recently undergone positive changes. We cannot turn a blind eye. Quantitative changes will eventually cause qualitative changes. We should face up to them and pay attention to them.” Xia Junjie emphasized.

Hong Hao, chief economist of Sirui Group, believes that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has already hit a cyclical low, and the market is beginning to take into account the four interest rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve next year. Therefore, the historical weakness of the renminbi should begin to bottom out, and the gap between China and the US should also narrow. This recovery in interest spreads is expected to ease capital withdrawal and pressure on Chinese asset prices, and help the market to rebound and repair intermittently.

Wang Jiandong, director of the 10 billion private equity capital investment, believes that the two major opportunities needed by the market have arrived. One is that China has ushered in a larger fiscal stimulus, and the other is that the fall in US interest rates has given the market a phased investment opportunity. “The policy's intention to underpin the market is very clear. The market has fully reflected pessimistic expectations. As confidence gradually recovers and corporate profits continue to improve, we will usher in a new golden period for the stock market.”

Focus on “asymmetric” opportunities in the market

Last week, the three major US indices recorded their biggest weekly gains in 2023. At the same time, Hong Kong stocks have also continued to rebound since October 24. In particular, the rebound in the technology and pharmaceutical segments is particularly obvious. The rebound is nearly 10%, and capital inflows are obvious. On November 3, the fund share of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180), which is sensitive to changes in overseas interest rates, reached 45.392 billion shares, a record high, while the share of Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on the domestic Internet industry, continued to rise. On November 7, it reached 77.739 billion shares, continuing to reach a new all-time high.

“We expect the MSCI China Index to rise by almost 15%.” J.P. Morgan has turned bullish on the Chinese stock market, believing that the possibility of a technical rebound in the Chinese stock market before the end of the year is increasing. Investors' main concerns about China, such as geopolitics, short-term technical growth, and long-term structural growth, have shown marginal improvements, but they have not yet been digested by the market.

Liu Hong, founder and chief investment officer of Zhishun Investment, believes that the results of the listed companies' three-quarter reports have been disclosed. “We have seen that the development of more and more industries has ushered in an upward inflection point, and we have also seen more and more industrial capital increase holdings and repurchases. From now on, any decline in the A-share market will be a sincere invitation to all types of capital, and investors who take the opportunity to enter the market will likely reap rich rewards in the future.”

Tamsui Quan, a 10 billion private equity firm, also said in its latest monthly report that from the perspective of corporate fundamentals, the cumulative growth rate of non-net profit in the third quarter of all A (non-financial oil) was narrower than the decline in the second quarter. Return on net assets (ROE) and gross margin showed signs of solid improvement, and the period of high pressure on corporate performance growth is over.However, in the current market environment, many excellent enterprises have been affected by pessimistic market sentiment. Stock prices have been fully adjusted, and the room for decline is relatively limited, yet their ability to obtain cash flow in the medium to long term has not weakened; on the contrary, some are even stronger. This means that when sentiment is reversed, there is also a lot of potential room for stock prices to rise. In terms of one or two years, this is a typical “asymmetric” opportunity in the investment field.

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