Maintain an “increase in holdings.” We maintain the 2023-2025 EPS forecast of -0.1 yuan, 0.2 yuan, and 0.31 yuan respectively, and maintain the target price at 9.92 yuan to maintain the “increased holding” rating.
Incidents: The company announced a briefing on pig sales in October 2023. In October, the company sold a total of 473,600 pigs, with a cumulative total of 4.636,600 heads in January-October; total sales revenue for the month was 784 million yuan, and for January-October, a cumulative total of 7.554 billion yuan; the average sales price of fattened pigs owned and shared by the company for that month was 14.88 yuan/kg.
Pig prices declined month-on-month, so pig listings also declined slightly; the company sold 473,200 pigs in October 2023, an increase of -5%. Among them, the holding company sold 299,900 pigs, an increase of -6.67% over the previous month, an average weight of 119.55 kg, and participating companies sold 182,300 pigs, an increase of -2.20% over the previous month, with an average weight of 124.89 kg; mainly affected by low prices in the industry and swine diseases. Judging from pig prices, the company's production efficiency increased -596.% month-on-month, while the company's production efficiency increased -596.% month-on-month Step by step Increase, and costs gradually improve. Currently, the bottom characteristics of the pig industry are obvious, and it is expected that the inflection point will rise in the future, boosting the company's performance growth.
The commercialization of genetically-modified genes has begun, and the company's large-scale seed industry layout is expected to be improved at an accelerated pace; on October 17, the Seed Industry Department of the Ministry of Agriculture announced 37 genetically modified corn and 14 genetically modified soybean varieties, and genetically modified soybean varieties. The company has a clear first-mover advantage in the genetically modified field. The proportion of neutral traits in corn and soybean varieties reached 60% and 36% respectively. At the same time, the company is expected to cover soybeans and corn, domestic and overseas dual-line business. Relying on the advantages of traits, it is expected that the company's large-scale seed industry strategy will gradually improve.
Risk warning: swine disease risk, product price fluctuations, raw material price fluctuations.