第三季度业绩略超预期，盈利能力环比改善。前三季度，前三季度实现营收10.6 亿元，同比-26.6%，Q3 实现营收4.2 亿元，同比-16.7%。前三季度实现归母净利润1.6 亿元，同比-50.7%，Q3 实现归母净利润4.2 亿元，同比-16.7%。经营活动产生的现金流量金额为1.9 亿元，回款增加、经营活动现净流出同比减少。公司重视研发，前三季度研发投入0.7 亿元，同比增长13.5%，占营收比重6.6%。公司盈利能力提升，Q3 毛利率达34.4%，净利率为17.3%，而Q2 毛利率为32.1%，净利率为14.0%。公司第三季度业绩略超预期。Description of the event
On October 28, Tiannai Technology released its third quarter report. The company achieved operating income of 1.06 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -26.6%, net profit of 160 million yuan, and -50.7%; the company achieved operating income of 4.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, -16.7% year-on-year, +15.2; and net profit of 0.7 billion yuan, -42.1%, and +42.9% month-on-month.
Incident reviews
Third-quarter results slightly exceeded expectations, and profitability improved month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the first three quarters achieved revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, -26.6% year-on-year, and Q3 achieved revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, -16.7% year-on-year. The first three quarters achieved net profit of 160 million yuan, -50.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 420 million yuan in Q3, -16.7% year-on-year. The amount of cash flow from operating activities was $190 million, repayments increased, and the net outflow from operating activities now decreased year-on-year. The company attaches importance to R&D. It invested 0.7 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year, accounting for 6.6% of revenue. The company's profitability increased. Q3 gross margin reached 34.4%, net profit margin was 17.3%, while Q2 gross margin was 32.1%, net margin was 14.0%. The company's third-quarter results slightly exceeded expectations.
It is estimated that the annual shipment volume of carbon nanotube slurry will be about 60,000 tons, and the profit of a single ton in Q3 will improve. About 42,000 tons were shipped in the first three quarters. We estimate that Q3's carbon nanotube slurry shipments were about 16,500 tons, an increase of about 10% over the previous year and 20% over the previous year. The company adjusted its shipping structure in Q3. The share of second- and third-generation products increased, and the company continued to reduce costs, leading to an increase in the company's profitability. We estimate that Q3's revenue per ton of carbon nanotube conductive paste was about 24,400 yuan/ton. The gross profit per ton increased from about 0.75 million yuan/ton in H1 to about 0.83 million yuan/ton in Q3, and the net profit per ton increased from about 0.33 million yuan/ton in H1 to about 0.42 million yuan/ton in Q3, and profitability improved markedly.
The share of third-generation products is expected to increase, and single-walled carbon tubes are expected to become a performance growth point. The company continues to develop new products. The relevant properties of the second and third generation carbon nanotube products are already at the leading level in China, further improving the length-diameter ratio of carbon nanotubes and increasing the conductivity. The company is actively promoting third-generation products to the market. Currently, the sales volume of the second-generation third-generation products is relatively close. We expect that the share of third-generation products in the company's carbon nanotubes will continue to increase. The company's single-walled carbon tubes have excellent electrical, mechanical, and thermal properties such as smaller pipe diameter, higher specific surface area, and better degree of graphitization, etc., and are difficult to prepare. The company plans 100 tons of single-walled nano-conductive functional materials and 7,000 tons of single-walled nano-conductive paste projects, which have now achieved small-batch shipments. With the expansion of downstream customers, it is expected to become a new performance growth point for the company.
Investment advice
The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 2.3\ 2.8\ 350 million yuan, corresponding to the company's closing price of 30.08 yuan on November 6, and the 2023-2025 PE of 42.5\ 34.6\ 28.1, respectively. We believe that the company's product competitiveness is leading in China and continues to expand downstream customers. It is expected that the company will continue to increase its market share in the future, cover for the first time, and give it a “buy-A” rating.
Risk warning
(1) Downstream demand falls short of expectations. If demand for downstream lithium-ion batteries falls short of expectations, it will affect the decline in the company's sales volume; (2) competition in the industry will intensify. If competitors increase in the future, product prices may decline, and the company's profitability will be affected; (3) the price of raw materials will fluctuate beyond expectations. If the price of the company's raw materials fluctuates greatly in the future, it will adversely affect the company's performance; (4) the commissioning progress falls short of expectations. If the company's production progress falls short of expectations, the performance may fall short of expectations.
