Introduction to this report:
The company has been deeply involved in the field of LPG deep processing for many years, extending the layout of maleic anhydride-BDO and other industries. The light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization project is progressing in an orderly manner, and the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “Overweight” rating. Affected by industry sentiment, the company's 23-year EPS was lowered to 1.77 yuan (originally 1.83 yuan), the company's 24-25 EPS was maintained at 2.05/2.28 yuan, and the company's target price was maintained at 25.13 yuan (corresponding to 14.2 times PE in 23 years).
Q3 Results were in line with expectations. The company 23 achieved operating income of 4.666 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -1.4% year-on-year; net profit of 382 million yuan, +13.97% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q3 revenue was 1,710 billion yuan, -2.88% year-on-year, +15.78%; net profit was 165 million yuan, +31.43% year-on-year, a change of +50% over the previous month. The increase in 23Q3 performance was mainly due to the company's internal cost reduction and efficiency increase and the price increase of major products.
The catalyst project adds another industrial chain puzzle. On November 1, the company's maleic anhydride catalyst project with an annual output of 500 tons was successfully put into operation. On November 9, the company plans to invest in the construction of a copper catalyst with an annual output of 1500 tons and a precious metal catalyst project with an annual output of 300 tons. The total planned investment of the project is 114 million yuan. The construction period of the project is 12 months. Construction is scheduled to begin in November '23 and be completed and put into operation before November '24. After delivery, it is expected to achieve an average annual sales revenue of 705 million yuan and a net profit of 56.4304 million yuan. The catalyst project helps the company continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency. It is also an important step for the company to lay out catalysts with high technology content, providing technical support for the company to expand its industrial chain.
The planned projects were completed and put into operation one after another, and the company began a new round of growth. The company plans a comprehensive light hydrocarbon project, focusing on maleic anhydride and BDO, and will comprehensively lay out downstream high value-added products. Following production of the 150,000 ton maleic anhydride plant, the 60,000 ton PBAT project has now been put into operation, the secondary butyl acetate plant has successfully resumed production, and the co-production of 100,000 tons of butanone with 130,000 tons of ethyl acetate is progressing in an orderly manner. Projects such as BDO and DMS are progressing in an orderly manner. The company is located in Daya Bay Refining and Chemical Zone, and low-cost LPG resources further reduce costs. In the long run, the company will benefit from the industrialization of production, the integrated layout of the industrial chain, and the company's excellent ability to reduce costs, and the company's growth is more certain.
Risk warning: projects under construction fall short of expectations, risk of fluctuations in product volume and price