Core views:
The company's 23Q3 performance was impressive. According to financial reports, the company achieved operating income of 27.26 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 in '23, +14.6%, and realized net profit of 24.7/21.9 billion yuan, respectively, +25.8%/+32.2% year-on-year; of these, 23Q3 achieved operating income of 9.04 billion yuan, +9.5%/+0.3% over the same period, and realized net profit before and after deducting net profit of 7.9/690 million yuan, respectively, +58.0%/-39.9%, month-on-month, -12.0%/-17.8%.
The company achieved a gross profit ratio of 21.9%, +0.9%; net profit ratio of 9.7%, year-on-year +1.2pct; among them, Q3 in '23 achieved a gross profit ratio of 21.3%, +2.2pct/-2.0pct, respectively; net profit margin of 9.2%, +3.1pct/-1.3pct month-on-month.
Coal machinery sector: Q1-Q3 in '23 achieved revenue of 14.17 billion yuan, +14.9% year-on-year, of which 23Q3 achieved revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, +7.2%/+4.0% over the same period; the good year-on-year performance of 23Q1-Q3 was mainly due to the fact that the coal industry maintained a good development trend, and the company's coal machinery business orders continued to grow. In terms of performance, the coal machinery sector achieved net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, +27.2% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 in '23, of which net profit of 750 million yuan was realized in 23Q3, +29.7% over the same period.
Auto zero sector: Q1-Q3 in '23 achieved revenue of 13.09 billion yuan, +14.2% year-on-year, of which 23Q3 achieved revenue of 4.26 billion yuan, +12.4%/-3.5%, respectively. In terms of performance, the automobile-zero sector achieved net profit of 90 million yuan, -2.6% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 in '23. The year-on-year decline in net profit of the automobile-zero sector was mainly affected by asset disposal income in the same period last year; the 23Q3 automobile-zero sector achieved net profit of 0.3 billion yuan, which was positive year-on-year.
Profit forecasting and investment suggestions: The company is an excellent high-end manufacturing enterprise led by a management with a methodology and a focus on medium- to long-term development strategies after the governance structure has been further optimized. The growth of coal turbines comes from intelligence and integration, and zero gas growth comes from internationalization and new energy sources. We expect the company's 23-25 EPS to be 1.73/2.18/2.63 yuan/share, maintaining the reasonable value of A shares at 26.4 yuan/share, and the reasonable value of H shares at HK$22.8 per share (at the exchange rate of HK$1.08 = RMB 1), maintaining the “buy” rating of A/H shares.
Risk warning: The price of raw materials has changed drastically; the prosperity of the coal machinery industry has declined; the improvement in the zero-gas business has fallen short of expectations, etc.