Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that it maintains the machinery industry's “recommended” rating and focuses on the recovery of the general manufacturing industry. Due to the decline in raw materials and the correction of the economic cycle, it is recommended to focus on several directions of layout.
The Zhitong Finance app learned that Minsheng Securities published a research report stating that it maintains the machinery industry's “recommended” rating and focuses on the recovery of the general manufacturing industry. The decline in raw materials and the correction of the economic cycle are recommended. It is recommended to focus on several directions: 1) General machinery sector, industrial mother machine tools, and industry-leading sector tools, which are more affected by fluctuations in the economic cycle, such as Haitian Precision (601882.SH), Chinatungsten Hi-Tech (000657.SZ), etc.; 2) As macroeconomic trends improve, the effects of steady infrastructure growth are gradually showing, and construction machinery is expected to benefit from a marginal reversal, such as Sany Heavy Industries (600031.SH), Hengli Hydraulic (), etc.; 3) The impact on the nucleic acid business is reduced and the steady growth trend is returning to a steady growth trend 601100.SH Testing sectors, such as Huazui Testing (300012.SZ), Soviet Test (300416.SZ), etc.; 4) The leading advantage in the segmentation circuit has been established, and hidden champions with steady growth, such as Hairong Cold Chain (603187.SH), Huarong Co., Ltd. (603855.SH), Ocean King (002724.SZ), etc.; 5) companies with long-term competitive advantages in new energy equipment, such as Pioneer Intelligence (300450.SZ), Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ), Maiwei Shares (300316.SZ), etc. (3001.SZ)。
2023Q2-Q3: There has been a recovery in revenue and profit growth.Minsheng Securities selected CS Machinery as a sample. 2023Q2/2023Q3, sector revenue was +9.6%/+4.8%, and the sector's net profit was +9.3%/+7.9% year-on-year.
Revenue side: Photovoltaics, lithium batteries, nuclear power, and aerial work platforms continue to rise, service robots are growing at an accelerated pace, construction machinery is approaching an inflection point, a new shipbuilding cycle has begun, and basic parts and forklifts are growing steadily.2023Q2/2023Q3, lithium battery equipment (+20.78%/26.01% year over year), photovoltaic equipment (+60.87%/+61.48%), nuclear power equipment (+16.13%/+13.46%), aerial work vehicles (+6.23%/+34.31%), and lifting and transportation machinery (+5.89%/+31.95%), the year-on-year growth rate of service robots accelerated (+7.05%/+16.42%); China's ship revenue maintained steady growth (+97.95%/+30.98%), goods (+1,468 million yuan/+5.138 billion yuan) and contract liabilities (+18.102 billion yuan/+6.978 billion yuan) continue to rise, and a new round of shipbuilding cycles has begun; basic parts (+8.01%/+7.81%) and forklifts (+9.39%/+12.16%) revenue growth is steady; construction machinery will reach an inflection point (+5.75%/-4.34%) (Note: the above figures are all in comparison).
On the net profit side, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and machine tools continued to be strong, the growth rate of nuclear power equipment and metal products improved, basic parts and railway transportation equipment remained steady, and aerial work platforms and forklifts performed well.2023Q2/2023Q3, lithium batteries (+6.24%/+30.40%), photovoltaics (+57.44%/+53.18%), machine tools (+22.22%/+382.07%) are still the strongest sectors. Nuclear power equipment (-0.06%/+82.39%), metal products (-12.75%/+26.35%) growth rates have been corrected, basic parts (+12.26%/+9.31%), railway transportation equipment (-3.68%/+1.63%), stable growth rate, and high-altitude work platforms (+35.35.3%) 37% /+ 52.72%) and forklifts (+72.19%/+52.99%), most of the other sectors showed a decline in profitability (note: the above figures are all year-on-year).
Gross profit margin: From a year-on-year and month-on-month perspective, the overall gross margin level of machinery has increased. Among them, aerial work vehicles, nuclear power equipment, shipbuilding, and construction machinery have increased significantly.From a year-on-year perspective, aerial work platforms (+11.47pct), nuclear power equipment (+13.91 pct), shipbuilding (+4.74pct), and construction machinery (+21.33pct) increased significantly, while the gross margin of metal products (-4.23pct) and plastic processing equipment (-2.28pct) declined significantly; from a month-on-month perspective, the gross margin of most sectors was basically flat or slightly fluctuated compared to Q2, except for mining and metallurgical equipment (-2.05pct).
Valuation: The valuation score of the 7 sub-sectors is less than 5%, the 7 sub-sectors are less than 25%, and the overall valuation is below 50%.Currently, out of the 22 machinery subsectors, the valuation in the 5% quantile includes mining and metallurgical machinery (0.00%), oil and gas equipment (0.00%), nuclear power equipment (0.00%), photovoltaic equipment (0.00%), lithium battery equipment (0.50%), aerial work vehicles (1.00%), and metal products (1.50%). Less than 25% of the valuation includes 3C equipment (7.01%), laser processing equipment (10.55%), instrumentation (10.79%), forklifts (12.06%), basic parts (15.86%), elevators (15.87%) ( 16.08%), service robots (16.58%).
Risk warning:1) Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; 2) Risk of fluctuations in gross margin due to rising raw material prices.