Cost reduction has exceeded expectations, and continuous volume growth has been excellent
Huatong Co., Ltd. released its 2023 three-quarter report. The first three quarters of 2023 achieved revenue of 6.164 billion yuan (yoy -3.98%) and net profit of 358 million yuan (yoy -889.75%). Q3 alone achieved revenue of 2,046 billion yuan (yoy -20.13%) and net profit of 0.2 billion yuan (yoy -101.82%). In view of the sufficient supply of pigs in 2023Q4 and limited room for pig prices to rise, we lowered the company's 2023-2024 profit forecast. Long-term pig prices are expected to gradually usher in a cycle reversal. We raised our 2025 profit forecast. The company's 2023-2025 net profit is expected to be -2.44/7.39/22.56 (the original forecast was 0.26/10.02/18.01, respectively) billion yuan. The corresponding EPS is -0.40/1.21/3.68 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is -41.4/ 13.7/4.5 times The company's pig breeding costs have declined rapidly, and the company's continuous volume growth has been excellent, maintaining a “buy” rating.
The company's Q3 cost reduction exceeded expectations, and the company's Q3 population restructuring continued to push the company's total breeding cost for Q3 pigs down to 16.85 yuan/kg (Q1 and Q2 were 17.8 and 17.5 yuan/kg, respectively). The rapid decline in company costs is due to the decline in piglet costs and depreciation and amortization due to increased sow productivity and pig farm capacity utilization. We expect the company's single Q3 pig sector to lose about 63 million yuan, of which the pigs lost about 59 million yuan. At the end of Q3, the company's ability to proliferate was raised to 130,000 heads, and is expected to reach 150,000 heads by the end of the year. The company continues to promote the restructuring of the high-breeding legal population, laying a solid foundation for long-term cost reduction and efficiency.
The number of pigs released continued to expand production capacity inside and outside the province, and slaughter profits increased steadily, and profits continued to expand. In the first three quarters, the company released 1.68 million pigs (yoy +100%), of which 528,000 pigs were released in Q3 (yoy +49%). The company released pigs rapidly, and production capacity within and outside the province continued to expand. We expect the company to release 2.2 million pigs in 2023. The number of pigs released in 2024 is expected to exceed 4 million. In terms of slaughter business, we expect the company to slaughter 3.11 million pigs in the first three quarters and achieve a profit of 61 million yuan, of which 1.2 million heads were slaughtered in Q3, achieving a profit of 15 million yuan. The company has extensive experience in slaughtering and has long-term profits. The average profit of slaughtering in Q3 was about 15 yuan. The company's slaughtering is integrated, slaughter production capacity continues to expand, production capacity utilization continues to increase, and the profit scale is expected to continue to expand. In terms of capital, the company has a book capital of 685 million yuan, multiple financing channels, steady progress in fixed growth projects, abundant capital, and worry-free expansion.
Risk warning: Animal disease risk, risk of abnormal swine price fluctuations, company listing, and cost reduction falling short of expectations.