The company released the 2023 three-quarter report: the first three quarters of 2023 achieved operating income of 32.835 billion yuan (-6.84% year-on-year), net profit of 1,164 billion yuan (+56.05% year-on-year), and net profit of 970 million yuan (+39.10% year-on-year) after deducting non-return net profit of 970 million yuan (+39.10% year-on-year). Among them, 23Q3 achieved operating income of 11.261 billion yuan (-9.15% year-on-year), net profit of 296 million yuan (+51.46% year-on-year), and net profit of 180 million yuan (+10.19% year-on-year) after deducting non-return net profit of 180 million yuan (+10.19% year-on-year).
On a quarterly basis: 22Q3/22Q4/23Q1/23Q2/23Q3 net profit was 2.19/7.18/3.59/5.10/296 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates (adjusted) of -34.7%/+5.9%/+3.0%/+151.7%/+151.7%/+51.5% respectively; express delivery shares were 15.9%/14.7%/14.2%/14.0%/14.5%, volume growth rate was -2.8%/-17.3%/-11.2%/8.1%/ At 6.4%, the share rebounded steadily from month to month, and volume broke negative feedback; net profit from a single vote was 0.048/0.160/0.094/0.111/0.061 yuan, respectively; net profit from a single vote (excluding other earnings and non-finance) was 0.019/0.130/0.083/0.074/0.030 yuan, respectively.
Single ticket data split: 23Q3 Yunda's single ticket express delivery revenue/single ticket period fee/single ticket net profit was 2.220/0.121/0.061 yuan, respectively, -0.098/-0.019/- 0.051 yuan over the previous year, -0.366/-0.045/+0.013 yuan. 1) Single ticket revenue: 23Q3 single ticket revenue declined year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in overall prices in the off-season industry in the third quarter while competition continued; 2) Single ticket costs: 23Q3's core operating costs of express delivery were in a steady downward channel; 3) Period expenses: Looking at overall data, Yunda 23Q3 period expenses were 589 million yuan, down 169 million yuan year on year, with a period fee rate of 5.2%, -0.5PCT.
According to single ticket data, the cost for the 23Q3 single ticket period was 0.121 yuan, -0.019 yuan month-on-month, and -0.045 yuan year-on-year.
The company's management optimization results have been shown, and the cost side has improved markedly.
23Q3 Summary: In an environment of low season+continued competition, the company's share steadily rebounded month-on-month (+0.5PCT), and net profit from a single vote improved year-on-year (+1.3 cents), and the overall performance was basically in line with expectations. Judging from the performance in the third quarter, the company's operations are resilient. Even if the short-term industry competition situation is difficult to ease, the company network still has a good ability to withstand pressure.
Follow-up outlook: The focus is on the progress of the company's own business repair. Currently, the share and cost side are already reflected. The main line cost of headquarters is in a downward channel. Compared with peers, there is still room for improvement in the future. At the same time, the company has curbed the declining share trend, broken negative feedback on sales volume, and franchisee confidence has recovered.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Adjust the company's profit forecast. Net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 17.75, 24.55, and 2,868 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of PE on November 6, 15.3, 11.1, and 9.5 times, respectively. It is recommended that attention be paid to Yunda's management improvements and the return of fundamentals to the industry average, so as to maintain an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: The growth rate of the industry's business volume falls short of expectations, industry price competition intensifies, network stability fluctuates, changes in other costs such as manpower and packaging materials, and uncertainty about the impact of related policies.