Hot news

• A number of senior officials from the Federal Reserve have stated that calls for interest rate hikes are still ongoing. They generally keep a close eye on US bond yields, and agree that inflation is too high

On Tuesday, a number of senior Federal Reserve officials spoke. Two senior officials, Federal Reserve Governor Bauman and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari, made hawkish speeches, mentioning that the Fed may still raise interest rates in the future. Officials generally say that inflation is still too high, and fighting inflation is a top priority. Many people have mentioned that rising bond market yields have led to a tightening of the financial environment.

• Bank of America: Customers are generally net buyers of US stocks, with purchases reaching 2.7 billion US dollars last week

Bank of America's global research team said on Tuesday that the S&P 500 index rose 5.9% cumulatively last week. Overall, its customers are net buyers of US stocks, with net purchases reaching 2.7 billion US dollars. Bank of America pointed out that in the bank's customer base, hedge fund clients and institutional clients are all buyers of US stocks. Among them, the scale of US stock purchases by hedge funds is the highest weekly level since June. Furthermore, individual investors are net sellers of US stocks, and this is the first time since September that there has been a net outflow of capital.

• Sing the opposite of big and small! HSBC: The prospects for a soft landing are paving the way, and the global stock market is expected to rise 10% next year

A strategist at HSBC Holdings said that if the Fed adjusts its monetary policy and allows the US economy to avoid recession, global stock markets are expected to achieve a double-digit rise in 2024. A research team led by HSBC strategist Alastair Pinder wrote in a report: “If the Fed can achieve a soft landing, this will mean that the stock market has clear room for growth.”

• The US trade deficit increased slightly in September, import demand remained strong, and the trade deficit with China increased slightly

Trade data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit in September widened 4.9% month-on-month to 61.5 billion US dollars, higher than economists' expectations of 59.8 billion US dollars, mainly because US consumers' demand for foreign goods is still strong, while the US trade deficit with China increased slightly. Despite a slight increase, the US trade deficit is still close to a three-year low, and this year is likely to record the smallest increase since 2020.

• Unfavorable conditions gathered, and oil prices plummeted by more than 4% to hit a new low of more than three months

Oil prices fell by more than 4% in the intraday period on Sunday. Both US oil and oil oil hit new lows in more than three months, erasing all gains since the Arab-Israeli conflict. The analysis points out that there are several reasons for the sharp drop in oil prices: US CFTC data shows that investors' bullish sentiment on crude oil has fallen to a new low in several months; the hawkish statements of two senior Fed officials have strengthened the US dollar, which is not good for oil prices; and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecast for future oil prices.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The three major indices collectively closed higher. The S&P “Seven Lianyang” and the NASDAQ “Eight Lianyang” all set new records of consecutive gains in the past two years

The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher. The NASDAQ rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.28%, and the Dow rose 0.17%. The Dow index and the S&P 500 index reached a seven-week high and rose for seven days in a row. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, which had been rising for eight days, set the longest record of consecutive gains since November 2021.

The majority of star technology stocks rose. Amazon and Netflix rose more than 2%, and Microsoft rose more than 1%, breaking a record closing price for eight days.

The decline in the China Central Index narrowed markedly at the end of the session, closing down 0.72%. Vipshop fell more than 3%, while Xiaopeng Motors, Tencent Music, JD, Bilibili, and NIO fell by more than 1%. Being “shorted” by Hindenburg, Yihang Intelligence plummeted nearly 13%, Pinduoduo rose more than 2%, and Ideal Auto rose more than 1%.

• Too many bugs, so rare, stop it! Apple delays development of next year's new iPhone, iPad, and Mac software

On Tuesday EST, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying last week$Apple (AAPL.US)$Employees were informed internally that in order to help control quality after a large number of bugs appeared in the initial version, next year's iPhone, iPad, and Mac software updates will be delayed. The task of Apple engineers is not to add new features, but to fix the defects and improve the performance of the software.

• Co-working stars have fallen! WeWork filed for bankruptcy, and SoftBank Sun Zhengyi left a black history with huge losses of 11.5 billion US dollars

On Monday local time, the market capitalization once reached 47 billion US dollars$WeWork (WE.US)$The company filed for bankruptcy protection in the US federal court of New Jersey, which basically ended the short capital myth story of this shared office company. According to some opinions, WeWork's bankruptcy filing also put an end to Sun Zhengyi's many years of myths in the investment world. As a major investment unicorn of SoftBank's Vision Fund in the past, WeWork's bankruptcy left SoftBank with equity losses estimated to exceed $11.5 billion, and $2.2 billion to repay debts with uncertain prospects.

• Musk's “New Cake”: A Chip for Visually Impaired People Will Be Launched in a Few Years

Marcus House, a well-known Australian tech media personality, posted on social media on Tuesday that his 14-year-old son Alex has a rare eye disease called CRB1 retinal dystrophy.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$CEO Musk replied, “Although this may not give you much comfort, Neuralink is developing a vision chip that is expected to be completed in a few years. After helping people who have lost their physical connection to their brains achieve mobile/computer telepathy, this is our next field of research. We are awaiting regulatory approval for our first human test subject.”

• Rivian's third-quarter results exceeded expectations, raised full-year production capacity expectations, and rose more than 4% after the market

American New Energy Vehicle Company$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$On Tuesday, the US stock market announced its Q3 earnings report after the market. Financial reports showed that the company's Q3 revenue was 1,337 billion US dollars, up 149.44% year on year. The market generally expected a loss of 1,315 million US dollars; adjusted loss per share was 1.19 US dollars. The market estimate was a loss of 1.48 US dollars per share, and the annual production was raised from 52,000 vehicles to 54,000 vehicles. As of press release, Rivian rose more than 4% after the session.

• US new energy vehicle company Lucid's third-quarter revenue fell short of expectations, lowered full-year production expectations, and fell more than 4% after the market

After the US stock market on November 7, EST,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$A lower-than-expected third-quarter result was announced. According to financial reports, Lucid's third-quarter revenue was 137.8 million US dollars, down from 195.5 million US dollars in the same period last year, down 30% from the previous year. Market expectations were 195.2 million US dollars; the adjusted loss per share was reduced from $0.40 in the same period last year to $0.28; the market expected loss was $0.40, and the full-year production forecast was lowered by 15% to 20%. As of press release, Lucid fell more than 4% after the session.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• North Water Sweeps Hong Kong Stock ETF, Slightly Reducing SMIC's Position by Over HK$100 Million

On November 7 (Tuesday), capital went south to buy a net amount of HK$9.567 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$received net purchases of HK$3.74 billion, HK$1,249 million and HK$933 million respectively;

$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net sales were HK$101 million, HK$74.37 million, and HK$32.76 million, respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: Powell and senior Fed officials deliver speeches; Shell, Disney, Roblox earnings

Wednesday,In terms of economic data,You can focus on the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the US in September. Also, due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA crude oil inventory report will not be published on November 8, and two crude oil inventory reports will be released on November 15.

In terms of financial reports,You can pay attention$Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823.HK)$,$BEKE-W (02423.HK)$Wait for Hong Kong stock companies;$Roblox (RBLX.US)$,$Disney (DIS.US)$,$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$,$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Wait until the US stock companies disclose their results.

Also, Federal Reserve Powell will deliver a speech at the Washington Bureau of Research and Statistics meeting on the same day.

The signs that the job market and the service sector are cooling down reinforce the idea that the Fed has ended interest rate hikes, and Wall Street is in a frenzy. The US swap market now shows that the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates again in January next year is only 16%, and that the possibility of cutting interest rates in June (instead of July) has been fully absorbed.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at the Federal Reserve, said, “These data are just one of a series of positive economic reports needed for the Fed to announce victory.”

Niu Niu Chen read:

Don't do anything unless you really know what you're doing.

—Jim Rogers

editor/tolk