Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor's production in October was 482,987 vehicles, -2.39%/+8.53%, respectively, and sales volume was 491,433 units, with a year-on-month difference of -2.36%/+1.92%, respectively. Among them: SAIC Motor's production and sales volume for passenger cars in October was 87,595/93,956 units, +27.03%/+38.29%, respectively, +3.39%/+1.75%; SAIC Volkswagen's production and sales volume in October was 112,166/120,013 units, respectively -10.53%/-4.22%, and -4.22%, month-on-month, -4.78%/+0.01%; SAIC-GM's production and sales volume in October was 95,034/85,000 units, -22.28%/-28.5%/ -2.57%/-15.00% month-on-month respectively; SAIC-GM-Wuling's production and sales volume in October was 152,873/155,000 units, respectively, +5.86%/-3.13% year-on-year, and +36.73%/+14.81% month-on-month respectively.
October wholesale was +1.92% month-on-month, and the monthly wholesale/new energy sales/export volume all reached record highs. The total wholesale sales volume of SAIC Motor Group in October was 491,000 vehicles, a new monthly high since 2023. 1) By brand, independent brands perform better than joint venture brands. SAIC Motor's passenger car production batch maintained positive month-on-month growth. Zhiji LS6 began to enter a peak batch delivery period, driving Zhiji to achieve sales of 4,018 units in October; SAIC Volkswagen sold 16,000 new energy vehicles in October, +136%; SAIC-GM's October production volume declined month-on-month, of which new energy sales were +90.7%; SAIC-GM-Wuling wholesale recovered significantly month-on-month, with monthly sales volume exceeding 26,000 units, reaching a new high; 2) By energy type, sales of new energy vehicles at the group level reached 1040,000 units, reaching a new high; 2) By energy type, sales of new energy vehicles at the group level reached 1040,000 units, reaching a new high; A new high within. At the group level, the production batches for new energy vehicles in October were 1030/104,400, respectively, +0.39%/+2.17% year on year, and +22.43%/+11.17% month on month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy in October was 21.16%, +2.71/1.76pct compared with the same period last month. 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, exports reached a new high during the year. SAIC Motor Group exported 111,300 vehicles in October, a year-on-month difference of +32.32%/+6.19%, respectively. The MG brand continues to expand at an accelerated pace in the European market, and the MG4 has become the top seller of pure electric compact cars in the European market. In January-October, SAIC Motor exported a total of 949,000 vehicles, +22.90% over the same period last year.
In October, the entire SAIC Motor Group went out of stock. In October, SAIC Motor Group companies had inventories of -8446 vehicles (compared to September), while SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC passenger cars, and SAIC-GM-Wuling had inventories of -7847, +10034, -6361, and -2127 units respectively (compared to September).
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's core technology, the new energy three-power system, and the full-stack layout of intelligent software and hardware. Further cooperation with Audi highlights the company's comprehensive strength in the field of electric intelligence.
Feifan+ Zhiji promotes high-end independent brands, while the company's export performance continues to be impressive. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 at 134.17/166.17/22.709 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.15/1.42/1.94 yuan, corresponding PE of 13/11/8 times, and maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the industry price war exceeded expectations.