Event: In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,352 billion yuan, +9.77% year-on-year, net profit of 0.4 billion yuan, or -49.72%; of these, 2023Q3 achieved operating income of 4.6 billion yuan, -14.42% year-on-year, and net profit of 0.06 billion yuan, -76.11% year-on-year.
On the revenue side, by business, we expect that due to the decline in sales prices of the company's Q3 OEM products, compounded by the high base for the same period last year, the company's machine business revenue will drop significantly, leading to a decline in overall revenue. We expect the company to actively expand new customers at home and abroad, reduce its dependence on a single major customer, and gradually increase the number of OEM terminals in the future.
On the profit side, the company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2023 was 12.59%, y-2.17pct, net profit margin was 3.3%, y-3.77pct; of these, 2023Q3 gross margin was 11.84%, y-1.4pct, net profit margin was 1.4%, year-on-year -4.44pct. Due to the decline in sales prices of OEM products, OEM profits have been diluted, leading to a decline in overall profit.
On the cost side, the company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2023 were 1.03%, 6.23%, 2.82%, and -1.24%, year-on-year, +0.03, +1.23, -0.1, +1.08pct; of these, sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses in the 23Q3 quarter were 1.14%, 7.06%, 2.67%, and -0.3%, respectively, +0.2, +2.41, +0.32, +2.63pct. The increase in employee remuneration and depreciation, and the year-on-year decline in exchange earnings also reduced the company's profit.
On the balance sheet side, the company's monetary capital+transactional financial assets for the first three quarters of 2023 were 491 million yuan, -7.54%, inventory was 263 million yuan, -18.4% year-on-year, and the total number of notes and accounts receivable was 532 million yuan, -20.32% year-on-year. On the turnover side, the company's turnover days for inventory, receivables, and payables for the first three quarters of 2023 were 64.16, 107.75, and 124.42 days, respectively, compared to -8.79, +3.83, and +12.92 days. In terms of cash flow, the company's net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters of 2023 was -151 million yuan, -246.76% year-on-year, of which cash flow from sales of goods and provision of labor services was $1,062 million, -2.97% year-on-year; of these, net cash flow from 2023Q3 operating activities was -037 million yuan, -323.78% year-on-year, of which cash flow from sales of goods and provision of labor services was $293 million, -32.85% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: At present, Shang Teng has completed the equity transfer. Currently, the company's OEM business has experienced a phased decline in revenue, and it is expected that the revenue and profit of the whole machine will increase in the future. According to the situation in the three-quarter report, we have appropriately lowered the company's revenue growth rate. The estimated net profit for 23-25 is 0.79/179/229 million yuan (previous value was 1.48/2.14/257 million yuan), and the corresponding dynamic PE is 26.5x/11.7x/9.1x. Maintain the “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations; market competition risk; replacement product risk; machine orders falling short of expectations; exchange rate risk; OEM penetration rate falling short of expectations, etc.