Description of the event
The company's total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 2,415 million yuan (+6.71%, same below); net profit of 241 million yuan (+5.65%), net profit of 231 million yuan (+3.78%) after deducting non-net profit of 231 million yuan (+3.78%). The total operating income of 2023Q3 is 550 million yuan (+20.86%); net profit of net income is 1,5604 million yuan, net profit after deducting non-net profit of 15.882 million yuan.
Incident comments
The main business revenue was 2,367 billion yuan (+6.77%) and 2023Q3 +21.05%. The third quarter alone was mainly driven by rice dumpling revenue:
(1) In terms of revenue by product, the rice dumpling series was 1,881 billion yuan (+10.58%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 60.23% year on year, the mooncake series was 155 million yuan (-13.32%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 fell 13.26% year on year, the meal series was 113 million yuan (+2.41%), 2023Q3 increased 4.93% year on year, and egg products, pastries and others were 218 million yuan (-3.88%) in the first three quarters. 2023Q3 increased 6.67% year on year, rice dumplings were mainly two Unconfirmed quarterly revenue reports confirmed a lot of growth; the mooncake series still expects some revenue to lag until the fourth quarter, and the company's 2023Q3 year-end contract debt is 91.2078 million yuan (+5.01%); the revenue growth rate for meals and other food products is accelerating.
(2) Looking at revenue by channel, chain stores in the first three quarters were 299 million yuan (+27.5%), 2023Q3 +9.51%, e-commerce was 788 million yuan (+6.45%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 29.46% year on year, supermarkets were 271 million yuan (-12.73%), 2023Q3 fell 1.27% year on year, dealers were 880 million yuan (+11.65%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 6.86% year on year, and other first three quarters 128 million yuan (-10.21%) ), 2023Q3 increased 22.33% year over year. The total number of dealers at the end of the third quarter was 737, +44 over the previous quarter.
(3) Looking at revenue subregions, East China was 1,172 billion yuan (+8.8%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 8.34% year on year, North China was 322 million yuan (+7%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 54.63% year on year, Central China was 116 million yuan (+2.31%), 2023Q3 increased 5.42% year on year, South China was 105 million yuan (+7.15%) in the first three quarters, 2023Q3 increased 193.81% year on year, and 91 million yuan (+12.87%) in the first three quarters of Southwest China. 2023Q3 increased 339.37% year over year, the first three quarters of the northwest had 17 million yuan (+14.52%), 2023Q3 fell 1.24% year over year, the first three quarters of Northeast China had 14 billion yuan (+16.15%), 2023Q3 was down 10.06% year on year, and the first three overseas quarters were 11 million yuan (+8.87%), and 2023Q3 increased 3.41% year on year.
The gross margin declined slightly, and the expense ratio improved marginally. The company's net interest rate for the first three quarters of 2023 fell 0.1 pct to 9.99%, gross margin - 0.5 pct to 38.57%, and the period fee rate +0.1 pct to 25.23%, with detailed changes: sales expense ratio (+0.02pct), management expense ratio (+0.4pct), R&D expense rate (+0.22pct), financial expense ratio (-0.53pct), sales tax and surcharges (-0.09pct). The net profit margin of the 2023Q3 was increased by 0.33pct to -2.74%, gross margin -0.03pct to 28.67%, and the period fee rate -2.83pct to 33.07%, with detailed changes: sales expense ratio (-0.43pct), management expense ratio (-1.68pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.44pct), financial expense ratio (-0.27pct), sales tax and surcharges (+0.06pct), and management expense ratio optimization was obvious.
The profit forecast is based on investment recommendations: Net profit from 2023-2025 is expected to be 1.80/2.41/322 million yuan, EPS is 1.25/1.68/2.24 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, 22/16/12 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Food safety risks;
2. Risk of seasonal fluctuations in operations;
3. Raw material price risk, etc.