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美股前瞻 | 美股年末大反攻打响?以史为鉴:11月是历史表现最好月份之一;涨到头了?美国大型养老基金减持英伟达、英特尔和福特

US stock outlook | Did the US stock market attack begin at the end of the year? Learn from history: November is one of the months with the best performance in history; has it reached the end? Major US pension funds reduce holdings of Nvidia, Intel, and Fo

Futu News ·  Nov 6, 2023 20:52

Global macroscopic

  • On Monday, the three major US stock indices rose slightly before the market

It is worth noting that starting Monday (November 6), US stocks have entered winter time, and trading hours have been adjusted as follows: pre-market trading time is 17:00-22:30 Beijing time; continuous trading time is 22:30-05:00 Beijing time; after-market trading time is 05:00-09:00 Beijing time. The Beijing time corresponding to US futures trading will be delayed by 1 hour overall.

  • Central banks around the world have not relented, but the market has already changed: the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June next year, and by 100 basis points throughout the year

Bond investors and interest rate traders are increasingly betting that interest rate cuts by the world's major central banks will begin before the summer, challenging policymakers' claims that interest rates will remain “higher and longer” for the foreseeable future. The market is now fully priced, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in June next year, and will cut interest rates by nearly 100 basis points by the end of 2024.

  • Did the US stock market attack begin at the end of the year? Learn from history: November is one of the best months in history

According to data from LPL Financial, since 1950, November was the month with the highest average return on the stock market, while November to December was the two months with the highest average return. The strategist said that three months of continuous selling pressure may exhaust the US stock bears, causing the stock to approach the oversold level. There is another more well-founded explanation for the rise in the stock market at the end of the year: a “quirk” in the mutual funds tax law. Specifically, mutual funds must harvest their annual tax losses by October 31, three months before the closing date for individual investors. Tax loss harvesting is a transactional strategy that reduces tax liability.

  • US stock quarterly profit analysis: Q3 earnings are expected to record the first increase in a year

Earnings for America's largest companies are expected to collectively grow for the first time in a year, partly benefiting from strong consumer spending this summer. According to FactSet data, S&P 500 index constituent stock companies expect earnings in the third quarter to increase 3.7% year over year, the first increase since the same period last year. Revenue is expected to grow 2.3% year over year.

  • BlackRock: The impact of high interest rates has not yet reached the stock market; any rebound before the end of the year will be short-lived

US Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs. Despite recent pullbacks, they are still at a high level. Investors are gradually digesting the view that the Fed will tighten monetary policy over a longer period of time. However, history shows that under such circumstances, US stocks are often negatively correlated with US bond prices, and US bond prices are also negatively correlated with yields. Jean Boivin, head of the research department at asset management giant BlackRock, said that any rebound in the stock market before the end of the year is likely to be short-lived because the stock market does not fully reflect the prospects that interest rates will remain high for a long time.

Hot news

  • Star Technology's stock generally rose before the market

  • Are new models coming? Tesla is reported to be producing a 25,000-euro car at its German plant

According to people familiar with the matter on Monday (November 6),$Tesla (TSLA.US)$A car worth 25,000 euros will be produced at its plant near Berlin, a long-awaited development for the electric car manufacturer. The source did not specify when production will begin, while Tesla declined to comment on the news. As of press release, Tesla's pre-market stock price once rose by about 3%.

  • Has it gone up to the end? Major US pension funds reduce holdings of Nvidia, Intel, and Ford

In the past three quarters, a major US pension fund sold US chips and auto stocks and reduced its holdings$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$,$Intel (INTC.US)$,$Ford Motor (F.US)$and other industry giants. Specifically, the pension reduced its holdings of 92207 Nvidia shares and sold 57,4828 shares of Intel shares. In terms of automobile stocks, OPERF sold 622,672 shares of Ford Motor Company in the third quarter, reducing its investment scale to 1.9 million shares.

  • Guo Mingyi: The decline in iPhone shipments in the Chinese market was higher than expected, and the Chinese mobile phone market experienced structural changes due to the return of Huawei

Well-known analyst Guo Mingyi said a few days ago that$Apple (AAPL.US)$The decline in iPhone shipments in the Chinese market was higher than expected, and iPhone shipments in the Chinese market will continue to decline in 2024. This also means that the Chinese mobile phone market has indeed undergone structural changes due to the return of Huawei.

  • Amazon to launch Black Friday event on November 17

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It said on Monday that the “Black Friday” event will be held starting November 17. The company said the event started earlier than last year. Amazon will also sell select products from popular brands such as YETI, Peloton, LEGO, Lancôme, and Ruggable at the lowest prices. Additionally, Amazon plans to hold a “Cyber Monday” promotion from November 25 to November 27, offering discounts on brands such as Casper, Ninja, Cerave, and Helly Hansen.

  • Sell stocks and stock up on cash! Buffett has “eaten interest” over the past quarter

$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$According to the financial report released, the company sold shares worth more than 5 billion US dollars in the third quarter. This brought Berkshire Hathaway's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term US securities to a total of 157.24 billion US dollars, a record high. The financial report revealed that interest income from Berkshire Insurance's investment increased to 1.7 billion US dollars in these three months, bringing the total interest for the past 12 months to 5.1 billion US dollars. This is more than the total interest Berkshire has earned on its cash reserves over the past three years.

Focus on China Securities

  • Popular Chinese securities collectively strengthened before the market

  • Ideal Auto rose more than 8% before the market. Agencies say it may be expected to sprint to 45,000 monthly sales by the end of the year

$Li Auto (LI.US)$US stocks rose more than 8% before the market. Tianfeng Securities published a report stating that they continue to be optimistic about Ideal Auto's fourth quarter sprint to monthly sales of 40,000 vehicles. Judging from production capacity and order conditions, it may be expected to sprint to 45,000 monthly sales by the end of the year; at the end of the year, the focus was on the MEGA press conference and commuter NOA progress. The bank is optimistic that if MEGA can make breakthroughs in pure electricity capacity, large space, and intelligence, etc., and its product strength continues to lead the market, the monthly sales volume is estimated to reach at least 5,000 to 8,000 vehicles.

  • Surged nearly 12% before the market! Baishi Group received a privatization offer, and Alibaba and Cainiao participated in the acquisition

$BEST Inc (BEST.US)$It was announced on Monday that the company's board of directors has received a preliminary, non-binding takeover proposal from the company's founder, chairman and CEO Zhou Shaoning, including$Alibaba (BABA.US)$A consortium of buyers, including Cainiao, and Zhou Shaoning, plans to acquire all of Baishi Group's issued common shares, including Class A common stock represented by ADS, using $0.144 per common share ($2.88 per ADS) in cash. After the news was announced, as of press release, Baishi Group's stock price rose nearly 12% before the market.

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Editor/Somer

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