郑煤机(601717):煤机业绩稳步增长 汽零业务渐入佳境

Zheng Coal Machinery (601717): Coal machinery's performance is growing steadily, and the zero-gas business is getting better

財通證券 ·  11/04/2023

Event: On October 30, 2023, the company released the “Report for the Third Quarter of 2023”. The company achieved operating income of 27.241 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 14.59% over the previous year, net profit of 2,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.76%, net non-net profit of 2.190 billion yuan, an increase of 32.18% over the previous year, and net cash flow from operating activities was 1,218 billion yuan, up 12.59% year on year.

Performance is growing steadily, and profit levels continue to rise. Looking at 2023Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 9.030 billion yuan, an increase of 9.53% over the previous year, net profit of 786 million yuan, an increase of 58.02% over the previous year, and net profit of 691 million yuan after deducting non-net profit of 691 million yuan, an increase of 39.87% over the previous year. In terms of profit margin, the gross sales margin and net profit margin of 2023Q3 company were 21.34%/9.21% respectively, +2.23pct/+3.07pct year-on-year. The third quarter was a traditional low season, and the company's profit level increased steadily over the previous year.

The coal machine business has benefited from the large-scale effect, and the level of profit has steadily increased. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's coal machinery and equipment sector achieved revenue of 14.172 billion yuan/net profit of 2,491 billion yuan, +14.93%/+32.20% over the same period last year. Looking at 2023Q3 alone, the coal machinery sector added revenue of 4.794 billion yuan/net profit of 786 million yuan, respectively, +7.42%/+34.80% over the same period last year. The coal industry continued to maintain a good development trend. The company's coal machine business orders continued to grow, and the scale effect accelerated the increase in profit levels. The ratio of 2023H1's coal machine business order volume/payment/total industrial output value/total industrial output was +45%/+33%/+38%/+43%, respectively. All four indicators reached record highs. As a leading enterprise in the field of intelligent coal mines, especially hydraulic supports and electro-hydraulic control systems, the company will continue to benefit from the wave of intelligent coal mine transformation in the future.

The auto zero business is getting better, and ASIMCO+SEG is two-wheel drive. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's auto zero segment achieved revenue of 13.089 billion yuan/149 million yuan in net profit, +14.24%/+5.51%, respectively. The net profit growth rate was less than that of revenue growth, mainly due to asset disposal income obtained in 2022. Looking at 2023Q3 alone, the auto zero sector added revenue of 4.256 billion yuan/net profit of 47 million yuan, net profit of +12.36% year-on-year, and net profit turned a loss into a profit year over year. Looking at (1) ASIMCO: In the first three quarters of 2023, ASIMCO achieved revenue of 3.182 billion yuan, +17.02% year-on-year. The increase in performance mainly benefited from the smooth expansion of the new energy business, the increase in overseas business, and the recovery in domestic commercial vehicle market demand; (2) SEG: Achieved operating income of 9,927 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, +13.33% year-on-year, mainly affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate between the euro and the renminbi.

In the field of automotive electrification, 48V BRM second-generation products equipped with self-developed inverters have made a new breakthrough. Volvo has already mass-produced in Europe and China. It is expected that two international brand projects will be put into operation in early 2024, and that more customer projects will be put into production in 2025, while increasing investment in new energy research and development. High voltage relay products have received orders from global auto parts groups and achieved mass production.

Investment suggestion: The company has a stable leading position in the domestic hydraulic bracket and intelligent coal engine business, and the zero-gas business will gradually experience marginal improvements. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 32.0/38.5/4.56 billion yuan from 2023-2025, corresponding to PE 7.0/5.8/4.9 times, respectively, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: economic policy risk, market downturn and increased competition risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, raw material price risk, overseas market operation risk, etc.

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