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润邦股份(002483)三季报点评:经营层面趋势向上 无惧短期波动

Runbang Co., Ltd. (002483) Three Quarterly Report Review: The upward trend at the management level is not afraid of short-term fluctuations

中泰證券 ·  Nov 5, 2023 00:00

Events: The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. 23Q1.3 achieved revenue of 4.966 billion dollars, +70.1% year on year, net profit of 217 million, 28.9% year on year, gross margin of 177%, year-on-year ratio of 4.3%; single Q3 revenue of 1,931 million, +55.9% over year, +5.9% month on month, net profit of 05.9 billion yuan, +28.1% year on month, gross margin of 16.1%, 5.8pc-t, month-on-month, and 4.8pc-t, month-on-month pct0 business analysis: 23Q3 achieved net profit of 49% month-on-month, our judgment Department:” (1) Profitability declined to a certain extent, with comprehensive gross margin falling 3 points to 16%;” (2) Expenses fluctuated during the period, and overall sales/management/R&D expenses were relatively stable. Financial expenses increased by more than 50 million month-on-month due to changes in exchange profit and loss, an increase of nearly 3 points. Material handling equipment sector: The output is still strong, and Q3 entry is expected to increase somewhat month-on-month. Looking ahead, we look at order fulfilment+global brand+production capacity expansion to improve performance expectations: (1) Ongoing orders exceed 10 billion dollars, with a cumulative total of 10 billion + contracts signed with UAE customers, which are expected to be gradually fulfilled over the next 2.3 years; (2) By the end of the 3 Li report, the subsidiary German company Koch had completed the transfer of the global bulk handling business under the FLSmidth Group. This segment of business favors heavier bulk material handling systems (customers cover global mining companies such as Vale and BHP Billiton), further enriching the product range and customer base. Global after-sales service that undertakes this business All Ongoing orders are expected to increase performance contributions. (3) As of the end of the 3 Li Newspapers, with regard to the “Tongzhou Bay Equipment Manufacturing Base Project”, Runbang Heavy Machinery has signed a relevant investment agreement and set up related subsidiaries, making steady progress. Marine engineering equipment and supporting equipment sector: It is estimated that a single pile Q3 will ship about 30,000 tons, a decrease of about 40% from the previous month, and is expected to be at the level of 131,400 tons for the whole year. Looking ahead to the follow-up, the pace of approval for sea breezes has accelerated, overall fundamentals have improved, and the certainty of ocean wind demand has increased, which is expected to drive a rapid increase in the company's shipments. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect net profit to be 2.9/4.5/55 billion yuan (previous forecast value: 35.4/4.5 billion yuan) in 23.25, respectively, an increase of 448% /53% /23% over the previous year. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 16.6/10.9/8.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Haifeng's installation falls short of expectations; market competition increases risk; order absorption falls short of expectations; risk of impairment of goodwill, etc.

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