投资建议：我们预计公司2023-2025 年实现营业收入分别7.79 亿元、9.76亿元和11.89 亿元，实现归母净利润分别为0.83 亿元、1.00 亿元、1.17 亿元，同比增长25.2%、19.8%、16.7%。对应EPS 分别为0.34 元、0.41 元、0.47 元，当前股价对应的PE 倍数分别为34X、28X、24X，考虑公司所处的轨道交通行业和电子元器件配件行业的成长空间，以及公司向上游新材料领域布局成效已经显现，给予一定估值溢价，维持“买入”评级。Event: The company released the report for the third quarter of 2023. In Q1-Q3 of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 448 million yuan, an increase of 7.95% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 54 million yuan, an increase of 7.58% over the previous year; in Q3 of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 167 million yuan, an increase of 12.69% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 121 million yuan, an increase of 19.41% over the previous year.
There has been a steady increase in performance, and gross margin has increased significantly. According to the company's 2023 semi-annual report, in 2023 H1, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 281 million yuan and 33 million yuan respectively, up 5.33% and 1.19% year-on-year respectively. According to the company's 2023 three-quarter report, in Q1-Q3 of 2023, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 448 million yuan and 54 million yuan respectively, up 7.95% and 7.58% year-on-year respectively; gross margin reached 29.95%, up 4.53pct year on year, and profitability increased significantly.
Investment in R&D has increased, and results have been remarkable. According to the company's 2023 three-quarter report, in Q1-Q3 of 2023, R&D expenses reached 024 million yuan, and the R&D cost rate reached 5.43%, an increase of 0.09 pct over the previous year. According to the company's 2023 semi-annual report, the company successfully passed the CRCC certification review and obtained certificates for fastener components such as high-speed railways, passenger and cargo lines, heavy-duty railways, urban rail transit, rail guards, etc., and the company was awarded as a specialized new giant enterprise. The company has achieved remarkable research and development results in railway fasteners and electronic components. In the field of electronic components and accessories, the company's new finished axial capacitor covers were successfully developed and industrialized, and participated in the formulation of the national standard GB/T 19390-2023 “Polyester Rubber Curtain Cloth for Tires”; in the field of railway fasteners, the company has 29 new products in the rail field under research, some of which have been successfully developed and industrialized and supplied, and intelligent equipment research and development is progressing smoothly.
Investment suggestions: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 779 million yuan, 976 million yuan and 1,189 million yuan respectively from 2023-2025, and realized net profit of 83 million yuan, 100 million yuan and 117 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, 19.8% and 16.7%. The corresponding EPS is 0.34 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.47 yuan respectively. The PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 34X, 28X, and 24X, respectively. Considering the growth space of the company's rail transit industry and the electronic components and accessories industry, as well as the results of the company's layout in the upstream new materials sector, it has given a certain valuation premium and maintained a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of railway construction falling short of expectations, risk of urban rail transit construction falling short of expectations, risk of increased market competition, risk of rising raw material prices.