Core views:
The company achieved net profit of 4.32 billion yuan in 23Q3, +0.5% over the previous month. The company achieved total operating income of 523.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 23 years, -0.8% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 114.1 billion yuan and 9.47 billion yuan after deducting net profit before and after, -9.8% and -11.0% over the same period last year. 23Q3 achieved total operating income of 19.79 billion yuan, -6.9% year-on-year and +8.9% month-on-month, net profit of 43.2 billion yuan and 3.80 billion yuan, -24.7%, -16.1% year-on-year, +0.5% and +8.5% month-on-month. The company's investment income was +0.7% in the first three quarters of 23 years; 23Q3 was +13.4% yoy, +44.2% month-on-month.
In 23Q3, SAIC Motor's wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 1.103 million units, with a market share of +0.5 pct over the previous month. According to data from the China Automobile Association, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, SAIC Passenger Car, and SAIC-GM-Wuling sold a total of 2.82 million passenger cars in the first three quarters of 23 years, with a market share of 15.4%, a year-on-year ratio of -4.0 pct. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle, and SAIC-GM-Wuling had market shares of -1.1 pct, -1.0 pct, -0.04 pct, and -1.8 pct, respectively. According to the production and sales report, SAIC Motor's exports and overseas bases sold 838,000 units in the first three quarters of the year 23, +21.8%; 23Q3 was 304,000 units, -0.9% year-on-year and +10.2%.
Zhiji Auto unveiled its new model, the LS6. After a week of launch, it locked up to 10,000 units. On October 12, Zhiji Auto's new smart all-electric SUV model, the LS6, was officially launched. All models are equipped with more than 100 cutting-edge technology configurations, all systems are equipped with Orin X high computing power chips and ultra-long-range high-precision lidar, and launched dual platform options of quasi-900V and quasi-500V. According to SAIC Motor's official website, the Zhiji LS6 went on sale in one week and locked in orders over 10,000 units.
Profit forecast and investment advice: As the leading company with the strongest comprehensive strength in the domestic automobile industry, it is taking core capacity building for independent brands as the main focus, driven by the continuous and rapid implementation of major innovation achievements, and supported by digital transformation to achieve simultaneous development of manufacturing and service, and focusing on building a more influential brand, more competitive system, and more flexible institutional mechanism. We expect the company's EPS for the year 23-25 to be 1.35/1.55/1.72 yuan/share, respectively. Combined with comparable company valuations, we gave it 14 times PE in 24 years, with a reasonable value of 21.74 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry sentiment declines; chip shortage exceeds expectations; competition exceeds expectations, etc.