Key points of investment
The company released the report for the third quarter of 2023: the company achieved revenue of 9.780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.14%; realized net profit of 851 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.74%; net profit after deduction of 805 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.69%; basic earnings per share of 0.86 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 32.96%; weighted average return on net assets of 10.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38pct; on a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 3.336 billion yuan, year-on-year decrease of 6.38pct; on a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 3,336 million yuan, year-on-year Decreased by 6.99%, up 5.73% month-on-month; realized net profit of 326 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.62%, an increase of 31.03% over the previous year; net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was 302 million yuan, a decrease of 39.19% over the previous year and an increase of 27.54% over the previous year.
There was a month-on-month recovery on the profit side: the company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2023 was 24.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89pct, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89pct, a year-on-year decrease of 9.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.42pct; the 2023Q3 gross profit margin was 24.40%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.30pct, a year-on-year increase of 0.65pct, a net profit margin of 10.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11pct, and a month-on-month increase of 1.56pct. Expenses for the first three quarters were 1,178 million yuan, up 12.31% year on year, period rate 12.04%, up 1.31 pct year on year; sales expenses were 128 million yuan, up 28.29% year on year, sales rate 1.31%, up 0.29 pct year; management expenses were 669 million yuan, up 11.66% year on year, management fee rate 6.84%, up 0.71 pct year on year; financial expenses of 61 million yuan, up 10.14% year on year, financial rate 0.62%, up 0.06pct year on year; R&D expenses 320 million yuan, an increase of 8.63% over the previous year, and the R&D fee rate is 3.27%, an increase of 0.26pct over the previous year.
The level of accounts receivable is high, and the growth rate of orders in hand is steady: by the end of the third quarter of 2023, the company's accounts receivable, notes receivable and receivable financing totaled 2,926 billion yuan, up 17.13% from the beginning of the year; of these, accounts receivable was 1,739 million yuan, up 14.79% from the beginning of the year; notes receivable were 925 million yuan, up 16.53% from the beginning of the year; receivables financing was 262 million yuan, up 38.45% from the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in accepted bills; receivables turnover rate decreased 0.6.22 percent year on year; Next; Inventory It was 2,914 billion yuan, up 40.69% from the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in inventory products; the inventory turnover ratio was 2.97, down 0.02 times from the previous year; and the contract debt was 3.171 billion yuan, up 26.71% from the beginning of the year, up 32.74% year on year. Among them, 2023Q3 increased 567 million yuan in the single quarter, with a steady growth rate of ongoing orders.
Credit and asset impairment losses decreased, and asset disposal income increased: 2023Q3 companies accrued credit impairment losses of $44 million, and accrued credit impairment losses of $94 million in the same period last year, mainly due to less bad debt losses on accounts receivable in the current period than in the previous period; reduced asset impairment losses of 8.6825 million yuan, and asset impairment losses of 5.739 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease in asset impairment losses under the current contract; generating asset disposal income of 8.5036 million yuan, up 212.01% year on year, mainly from current fixed asset disposal income As a result of the increase.
Profit forecast: Affected by fluctuations in gas product prices, the company's short-term performance is under pressure. It is expected that as the downstream procyclical industry gradually recovers, pipeline gas production capacity is put into production in an orderly manner, and supply and demand for rare gases return to balance, and the company's performance may return to an upward channel in the future. In summary, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. Without considering the impact of mergers and acquisitions, we expect the company to achieve net profit of 11.54/15.28/1,957 billion yuan in 2023-2025, corresponding to the closing price of PE of 28.2/21.3/16.7 times on November 2, 2023, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of retail gas price fluctuations; controlling shareholder transactions not progressing as expected; industry competition intensifies.