Event: Yunda Co., Ltd. announced 2023Q3 results. 23Q3 achieved operating income of 11.26 billion yuan, -9.2% year-on-year; net profit of 300 million yuan, +51.5% year-on-year; net profit after deduction of 180 million yuan, +10.2% year-on-year. Overall, the 23Q1-Q3 company achieved operating income of 32.84 billion yuan, -6.8% year-on-year, net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, +56.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 970 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 970 million yuan, +39.1% year-on-year.
Weak price competition in the industry is obvious, and volume and price are under pressure. Volume: In 2023Q3, the company's express delivery business volume was 4.87 billion units, +6.4% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.5%, a year-on-year -1.4 pp, ranking third; 23Q1-Q3 company's express delivery business volume was 13.27 billion units, +1.2% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.2%, a market share of 14.2%, a year-on-year -2.2 pp. Price:
2023Q3 company ASP (operating data caliber) is 2.22 yuan, -14.1% year on year; 23Q1-Q3 company ASP is 2.37 yuan/ticket.
Single ticket profits continued to improve, and non-recurring losses affected by non-recurring losses were not reimbursed. 23Q3 achieved operating income of 11.26 billion yuan, -9.2% year-on-year; management expenses of 340 million yuan, management expense ratio of 3.0%, year-on-year decrease of 0.1 pp; net profit of 300 million yuan, +51.5%, single-ticket net profit of 0.06 yuan, +42.4% year-on-year; net profit after deduction of 180 million yuan, +10.2%, single-ticket net profit of 0.04 yuan, +3.6% year-on-year, single-ticket profitability continued to recover. Losses from disposal of non-current assets in the current period led to deductions of non-return and net profit growth There is a big difference The amount of losses resulting from the disposal of non-current assets in 23Q3 reached 170 million yuan. The actual net profit of 23Q1-Q3 companies was 0.09 yuan, +54.3%; net profit from non-return tickets was 0.07 yuan, +37.5% over the same period.
Profit forecasts and investment advice. On the industry side, the growth rate on the demand side declined, and the volume growth rate tended to grow at a medium rate, which coincided with large fluctuations on the price side of the industry during the off-season; on the company side, 23Q3 Yunda's performance continued to improve. Looking ahead, we are optimistic that in the context of the recession of the epidemic and the recovery of demand, the industry's operating environment has improved, and the restoration and improvement of the company's comprehensive service capabilities will continue to help the company improve on the cost side, and that its operating strength will continue to be realized in terms of profit. Considering that the price competition in the industry is still obvious throughout the year, we lowered the company's net profit from 2023/24/25 to 17/27.36 billion yuan (previous value 2023/24/25:20/30/3.7 billion yuan), maintaining 12 times the company's PE, corresponding to the target price of 11.10 yuan in 2024, and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of industry demand recovery falling short of expectations; risk of price war intensification; risk of rising oil prices.