This week's (11.6-11.10) major financial events:
After the Super Week market,The US economic data for the coming week is relatively light.You can focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index;Furthermore, the performance of indicators such as China's CPI, PPI, and social finance data in October was also critical.
Federal Reserve officials will be on the move in the new week.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will appear twice, and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams and other voting committee members Logan, Bostic, and Balkin will take turns delivering speeches.
In terms of financial reports,The peak Q3 performance period for US stocks has passed, but there are still some corporate earnings reports worth paying attention to, including Occidental Petroleum where Buffett is betting heavily, Rivian, known as “Tesla's rival,” and Lucid, which Saudi investors have high expectations; the performance of Hong Kong stocks such as Ideal Auto and SMIC has also received a lot of market attention.
Also, the North American region began implementing winter time on November 5 (Sunday), and the publication of relevant financial transactions and economic data will be delayed by one hour compared to daylight saving time.
Related information:Understand the weekly key performance calendar in one chart (11.6-11.10)
Monday November 6th
Keywords: OpenAI first developer conference; BioNTech, NXP earnings
A busy week began, and economic data on Monday were rather lackluster.
In terms of financial reports,US stocks$BioNTech (BNTX.US)$with$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$The results will be announced on the same day.
In terms of the incident,American artificial intelligence company OpenAI is expected to announce product improvements at its first developer conference to be held on Monday, making its AI model cheaper and more powerful. Altman, the company's CEO, promised attendees that “some great new stuff” will be launched. In addition to announcing new products, the company may also fine-tune the capabilities of its most advanced artificial intelligence model, GPT-4.
Related information:The first OpenAI developer conference is coming. What updates will the AI model be made?
What you need to keep in mind isThe North American region began implementing winter time on November 5 (Sunday), and the publication of relevant financial transactions and economic data will be delayed by one hour compared to daylight saving time.
Tuesday, November 7
Keywords: Reserve of Australia announces resolution; Occidental Petroleum, Lucid and Rivian earnings reports
On Tuesday,In terms of economic data,A series of data, such as China's foreign exchange reserves and the US trade balance for September, will be disclosed one after another.
In terms of the incident,The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rate decisions.
Due to Australia's unexpectedly strong CPI for the third quarter, the rebound in housing prices to close to record highs, and the International Monetary Fund's suggestion that Australia should tighten monetary and fiscal policies to curb inflation, the market expects the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week to reach 60%.
However, the Reserve Bank of Australia also has reasons to keep interest rates unchanged. As the country's treasury yield is close to its highest level in a decade, the bond market has essentially helped the Reserve Bank of Australia do some of the work.
It is worth noting that Fed officials will be on the move in the new week and may reveal further clues about the future interest rate path.
On the same day, 2025 FOMC voting committee member and Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid will deliver a speech. In the early morning of the next day, New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams and 2023 FOMC voting committee member and Dallas Fed Chairman Logan will attend related events.
Williams is a permanent member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the “No. 3 person” of the Federal Reserve, so his speech had quite a bit of weight and is worth focusing on.
There are still some company earnings reports worth paying attention to on the same day.Including Buffett's heavy stakes$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$, electric vehicle manufacturer - known as the “rival of Tesla”$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$With Saudi money owners who have high expectations$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$etc.
Wednesday, November 8th
Keywords: Powell delivered a speech with senior Fed officials;$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$, Disney, Roblox earnings
Wednesday,In terms of economic data,You can focus on the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the US in September. Also, due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA crude oil inventory report will not be published on November 8, and two crude oil inventory reports will be released on November 15.
In terms of financial reports,You can pay attention$Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823.HK)$,$BEKE-W (02423.HK)$Wait for Hong Kong stock companies;$Roblox (RBLX.US)$,$Disney (DIS.US)$,$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$,$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Wait until the US stock companies disclose their results.
Also, Federal Reserve Powell will deliver a speech at the Washington Bureau of Research and Statistics meeting on the same day.
The signs that the job market and the service sector are cooling down reinforce the idea that the Fed has ended interest rate hikes, and Wall Street is in a frenzy. The US swap market now shows that the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates again in January next year is only 16%, and that the possibility of cutting interest rates in June (instead of July) has been fully absorbed.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at the Federal Reserve, said, “These data are just one of a series of positive economic reports needed for the Fed to announce victory.”
Thursday, November 9th
Keywords: China's CPI, PPI data, social finance data; number of initial jobless claims in the US; Ideal Auto, SMIC financial reports
On Thursday,In terms of economic data,The National Bureau of Statistics will release CPI and PPI data for October. In addition, investors can also pay attention to the scale of social financing in China in October and the annual rate of China's M2 money supply in October.
In September, the consumer market continued to recover, and CPI continued to rise month-on-month, but due to the increase in the comparison base for the same period last year, the year-on-year increase changed from flat to flat. Affected by factors such as the gradual recovery in demand for industrial products and the continued rise in international crude oil prices, the increase in PPI increased month-on-month in September, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.
In terms of financial reports,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$with$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$Other financial reports have received a lot of attention.
According to a research report published by Tianfeng Securities, as of October 27, Bloomberg unanimously anticipated that Ideal Auto's 23Q3 revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, +249% year-on-year; gross margin was 22%; and non-GAAP net profit was unanimously estimated at 2.29 billion yuan.
Although it is assumed that the quarterly automobile sales volume exceeded 100,000 for the first time, Q3 bicycle profits may have declined somewhat due to preferential subsidies and increased R&D expenses; the company expects Q4 to once again sprint to a new high, and monthly sales volume is expected to hit 45,000 vehicles.
In terms of the incident,Federal Reserve “top three” Williams, 2024 FOMC voting committee member Bostic, and Balkin will deliver speeches.
Bostic is the most moderate of the Fed's policymakers. Since June, he has insisted that the Fed should suspend further interest rate hikes because past aggressive measures will slow economic growth and gradually reduce price pressure.
It is worth noting that,At 3 a.m. the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at an expert group meeting hosted by the IMF.Investors are wondering if the latest signs of an economic slowdown are enough for the Fed to end interest rate hikes and seek further clues about the future path of interest rates.
Friday November 10th
Keywords: Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; ECB speech, Federal Reserve Voting Committee speech
For the US stock market, this week's economic data focuses on the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence survey.
The market was surprised by last month's survey revisions. One-year consumer inflation expectations rose 4.2%. However, Powell refuted this data at the press conference, saying it was an anomaly, and most consumer surveys showed that inflation expectations were still “well anchored.”
In terms of central bank dynamics,ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech.
Since inflation in the Eurozone plummeted to its lowest point in more than two years in October, and economic contraction in the third quarter increased the risk of a recession at the end of the year, it is unlikely that the ECB will raise interest rates further. However, considering uncertainties about the geopolitical situation, energy supply prospects, and the risk of inflation rising again, Lagarde insisted that it is definitely too early to discuss interest rate cuts. Despite this,The market is now betting that the ECB will be the first major central bank to relax its policy.
On the side of the Federal Reserve,The 2023 FOMC voting committee, Dallas Fed Chairman Logan, and the 2024 FOMC voting committee member and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic will deliver speeches.
Good luck with your investments in the new week!
Editor/Corrine
