Tianhe Solar (688599): Profit levels are steadily increasing, and the N-type integrated layout continues to improve

國聯證券 · Oct 30, 2023 00:00

事件：

公司发布2023 年第三季度报告，Q3 报告期内，公司实现营业总收入317.36亿元，同比增长41.25%，环比增长13.08%，实现归母净利润15.37 亿元，同比增长35.67%，环比下降13.27%；年初至报告期末，公司实现营业总收入811.19 亿元，同比增长39.38%，实现归母净利润50.77 亿元，同比增长111.34%，公司业绩整体稳健增长。

Q3 现金流显著改善，计提减值准备影响利润公司业务布局立足组件产品销售，向光伏支架、光伏系统、储能及电站运营等多领域协同拓展，抗风险能力和综合竞争能力有望长足提升。Q3 报告期内，公司经营活动现金净流量74.50 亿元，同比增长209.11%，环比增长101.45%，实现销售毛利率16.70%，同比提升3.43pct，环比提升0.56pct，实现销售净利率5.44%，同比提升1.12pct，环比下降1.48pct。Q3 公司销售毛利率同环比均实现增长，现金流实现显著改善。Q3 公司计提资产减值准备、信用减值损失合计10.89 亿元，叠加投资损失等因素，对公司报告期净利润水平影响较大。

一体化布局逐渐完善，成本结构有望优化

公司预计2023 年底硅片、电池片、组件产能将有望分别达到50/75/95GW，其中电池片TOPCon 产能40GW，截至2023 年6 月，公司TOPCon 量产效率达到25.8%，处于行业领先水平；并在泰国、越南布局合计6.5GW 一体化产能，主要面向北美等海外市场，积极推进全球市场战略布局。公司预计2023年有望实现组件出货65-70GW，我们预计公司全球市占率有望达到约15%，稳居行业龙头地位。公司规划可转债募投项目35GW 直拉单晶产能建设，其中一期20GW 于2023 年2 月投产，目前已经全面达产，预计2023 年底公司硅片自供率有望提升至50%以上，我们认为随着硅片自供比例提升，公司成本有望实现逐步优化。

盈利预测、估值与评级

公司一体化产能布局加速推进，光伏系统及电站业务开拓顺利，增厚公司年初至报告期末的营收及利润规模，我们上调公司业绩预期，我们预计公司2023-2025 年营业收入分别为1232.9/1550.1/1770.9 亿元（2023-2024年原值为1002.8/1255.0 亿元），同比增速分别为45.0%/25.7%/14.2%，归母净利润分别为77.1/94.3/113.4 亿元（2023-2024 年原值为46.6/58.7 亿元），同比增速分别为109.6%/22.3%/20.2%，EPS 分别为3.55/4.34 /5.22元/股，3 年CAGR 为45.5%。参照可比公司估值，我们给予公司2024 年9倍PE，目标价39.06 元，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：光伏装机需求不及预期、公司产能建设进度不及预期、原材料价格出现较大波动。

Incidents:

The company released its report for the third quarter of 2023. During the Q3 reporting period, the company achieved total operating income of 31,736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.25%, a year-on-year increase of 13.08%, a net profit of 1,537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.27%; from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period, the company achieved total operating income of 81,119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.38%, and a steady increase in overall corporate performance.

Q3 Cash flow has improved markedly. Accrual impairment preparations affect profits. The company's business layout is based on module product sales and collaborative expansion into various fields such as photovoltaic brackets, photovoltaic systems, energy storage and power plant operations. Risk resistance and comprehensive competitiveness are expected to improve significantly. During the Q3 reporting period, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was 7.450 billion yuan, up 209.11% year on year, up 101.45% month on month, achieving gross profit margin of 16.70%, up 3.43 pct year on year, up 0.56pct month on month, net sales profit margin 5.44%, up 1.12pct year on year, down 1.48 pct month on month. Q3 The company's gross sales margin increased month-on-month, and cash flow improved significantly. Q3 The company calculated asset impairment preparations and credit impairment losses totaling 1,089 billion yuan. Combined with investment losses, etc., factors such as investment losses had a great impact on the company's net profit level during the reporting period.

The integrated layout is gradually being improved, and the cost structure is expected to be optimized

The company expects the production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries, and modules to reach 50/75/95GW by the end of 2023, of which the battery TopCon production capacity is 40 GW. As of June 2023, the company's TopCon mass production efficiency has reached 25.8%, which is at the leading level in the industry; and has deployed a total of 6.5 GW of integrated production capacity in Thailand and Vietnam, mainly targeting overseas markets such as North America, and actively promoting the global market strategy layout. The company expects to ship 65-70 GW of components in 2023. We expect the company's global market share to reach about 15%, stabilizing its leading position in the industry. The company plans a 35GW convertible bond fund-raising project to directly pull monocrystalline production capacity. The first phase of 20GW was put into operation in February 2023. Production has now been fully completed. It is expected that the company's silicon chip self-supply rate is expected to increase to more than 50% by the end of 2023. We believe that with the increase in the silicon wafer self-supply ratio, the company's costs are expected to be gradually optimized.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

The company's integrated production capacity layout accelerated, and the photovoltaic system and power plant business developed smoothly, increasing the company's revenue and profit scale from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period. We raised the company's performance expectations. We expect the company's 2023-2025 operating income to be 1232.9/1550.1/177.0.9 billion yuan (the original value for 2023-2024 was 1002.8/12.05 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.0%/25.7%/14.2%, respectively, and net profit of 77.1/94.3/11.34 billion yuan (billion yuan) (The original value for 2023-2024 was 46.6/5.87 billion yuan), and the year-on-year growth rate was 109.6%/22.3%/20.2% respectively, EPS was 3.55/4.34/5.22 yuan/share, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR was 45.5%. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 9 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 39.06 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: PV installation demand falls short of expectations, the company's production capacity construction progress falls short of expectations, and raw material prices have fluctuated greatly.

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天合光能(688599)：盈利水平稳定提升 N型一体化布局持续完善

Tianhe Solar (688599): Profit levels are steadily increasing, and the N-type integrated layout continues to improve

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