According to Reuters, internationally renowned investment banksUBS(UBS) according to the latest report, the economic outlook in the Asia-Pacific region remains optimistic next year, corporate earnings and economic activity will continue to remain robust, and Asian stock markets excluding Japan are expected to rise further, with China, Indonesia and Thailand being the most bullish.
The 2018 outlook report, entitled "judging the hour and sizing up the situation", believes that global economic growth will stabilize at a good level of 3.8% next year, and there is little evidence that a recession is coming, creating a good environment for stocks. However, some central banks, such as the US, are expected to raise interest rates and continue monetary tightening next year, which will increase volatility in the world's major financial markets and widen the gap in individual stock returns, benefiting alternative investments such as hedge funds.
Chen Minlan, chief investment officer of UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific, said, "We are about to enter the new year, we are tactically bullish on Asia, and still maintain a pro-risk position." The economic outlook for Asia is good, and innovation will be the next wave of drivers in the region. "
The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index has risen nearly 30% this year, while the MSCI China index has risen nearly 50% over the same period.
However, she cautioned that at a time of uncertainty in monetary policy and geopolitics, investors should ensure that they have fully diversified strategic asset allocation.
The report points out that in the coming year, Asia except Japan will see earnings growth in all sectors for the first time in nearly a decade and is expected to generate a 13-14 per cent return for Asian stocks excluding Japan. Lagging sectors will catch up in 2017, including banks, Internet stocks and financial and consumer goods companies in Southeast Asia (Indonesia and Thailand).
"We continue to be bullish on the region and increase our positions against China, Indonesia and Thailand. "the report says.
The report also points out that Asian (excluding Japan) currencies are expected to rise moderately against the dollar next year due to a high base last year, rising inflation in the region and a weaker dollar. There will be significant differences in the performance of currencies:Korean won、Taiwan dollar, Thai baht,Singapore dollarAnd Malaysia.Ringgit.Will rise against the dollar; Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee andPhilippine pesoThe trend is expected to remain stable.RMB to US DollarIt should appreciate moderately, but still depreciate on a trade-weighted basis.
Hu Yifan, investment director and chief China economist at UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific, said on a conference call on Tuesday that China's economic growth is expected to slow to about 6.4% next year from about 6.8% this year, achieving more quality growth. The decline is mainly due to a slowdown in real estate investment and local infrastructure investment, as well as continued deleveraging in order to guard against financial risks.
She said that new economic growth points are emerging in China, such as manufacturing upgrading, environmental protection, state-owned enterprise reform and supply-side reform, and the performance of listed companies will continue to grow, while the RMB exchange rate will remain fluctuating in a range of 6.5-7 against the dollar. (end)