At the 2017 Snowball Carnival held in Shenzhen on December 10, the host interacted with three offensive fund managers: Qiao Xuan, a fund manager for Jingyuanxuan, Wang Daixin, a vulture fund manager, and Liu Qiaoji, chairman of Jiuxiao Investment.

The interactive topic went from 2017 to 2018, talking not only about the industries that made money in 2017, but also about the market forecast for next year.

Qiao Xuan has invested in both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. Most of this year's income comes from Hong Kong stocks. By combining value investment with trend investment, Qiao Xuan pays attention to observing the overall market environment and event-driven.Next year, he is optimistic about the asset management industry, which has not yet risen much, including China Huarong and China Cinda. He believes that the industry as a whole can maintain annual growth of more than 10%, and the leader can maintain income growth of more than 30%.

Wang Daixin gave a detailed explanation of the origin of the name "vulture fund". As for next year's market, he saidInner Housing Dragon shares have risen a lot this year, but there are still opportunities for housing stocks in the next year, in second-tier real estate.In terms of insurance, he believes that due to the high baseInsurance stocks will not grow as fast next year, but there will be double-digit growth.In terms of internal banking stocks, he believes that banks that have done well on the asset side in the past, banks whose share prices have fallen this year still have a chance next year.

Liu Qiaoji expressed his views on core asset stocks and beautiful 50. His favorite industries in the future include big finance, big health, new energy vehicles and big consumption. In terms of individual stocks, he is optimistic about enterprises like Tesla, Inc., believing that such companies represent the future direction.Domestic products, he is optimistic about life insurance, similar to New China Life Insurance, China Taiping.

The following is a transcript of the conversation between Qiao Xuan, Wang Daixin and Liu Qiaoji:

Moderator:It is a great honor to invite three of you to the scene to share the next link with us. The funds managed by the three of you on the snowball are all very high in the rankings. I would like to ask a question for you first, because there are many football players here. Many friends may also buy the fund products managed by three. Everyone is usually more concerned about giving the money to you three. Do you three usually keep an eye on the market and for how long?

Wang Daixin:Basically, I rarely keep an eye on the market except when I make a trade.

Qiao Xuan:There should be an hour or two in a day. Not much, not very little.

Moderator:Next, we have some specific questions to ask the three of you. First of all, ask Boss Wang. We all know that the name of the fund you manage is vulture. Why do you have such a name? Does it have any special meaning?

Wang Daixin:Maybe many ball players have asked on the snowball. I wrote a special article. I saw a documentary about vultures, which described animals like vultures. At that time, I had a very strong feeling that the behavior patterns of vultures or the way they prey have a lot in common with our investment. First of all, vultures eat food that other animals eat leftover or not, and even much of it is rotten meat that has not been visited for a long time. I think it may be the same to make investments to some extent, that is, we may have excess returns in some abandoned, unfavorable and unpopular markets or asset classes. This is the first point.

Second, it is said that vultures are the most energy-efficient animals in nature. They often lift off with the help of the warm and humid air on the African prairie after rain. They generally do not fly, but stay on the ground. Once they see food, they will swoop down in a straight line and pounce on their prey. So this gives us an inspiration for investment. We usually have to expand the scope of our search and search with the help of a variety of external and internal conditions, expand our ability circle through hard study, and improve our ability to identify some good opportunities. Once I find some good opportunities, my personal approach is that I will do my best and focus on a certain target or a specific industry for a long time.

Another point is that in terms of timing, the vulture does not take the initiative to hunt, it eats what others eat leftover or not, so it does not take the initiative to hunt. When it eats does not depend on when it wants to eat, depends on when others eat, others eat leftover it will have to eat. When we invest in the secondary market, when it comes to timing, it doesn't mean that we can invest when we have money, or when we understand an industry, we think we can buy this industry, and then we invest. Instead, we have to objectively see whether there is an opportunity in this market. I think this is a very random process, and we can invest only when we have the opportunity. We can only go when we can seize the opportunity, not that you can invest whenever you want.

Wang Daixin, the fund manager of the first phase of vulture

Moderator:Boss Wang is an advocate of value investment, and his analysis of each industry is also very in-depth. He has just explained to us the name vulture, which also reflects his idea. Next, let's ask Boss Liu, you are a very famous Maotai long player on snowball, so many friends are concerned about a question. What do you think of Maotai's current price? Is there a bubble? At what price can I sell it?

Liu Qiaoji:I have a special fondness for Maotai. Maotai is a business card of China. It is unique, that is to say, it has a strong premium ability of upstream and downstream. And with the continuous growth of China's middle class and the continuous development of overseas markets, it still has a lot of room for growth. In the next 8-10 years, its output and its price will double, so in the next 8-10 years, its profits will increase by 4 times and 5 times, so I think the current price of about 600 yuan in Maotai is worthy of continued attention.

Moderator:I thought 600 yuan was too low, and it had to go up by hundreds on the Internet, right? When do you plan to go up and how much will you sell?

Liu Qiaoji:How long the increase depends on the opportunity cost per person, because I am pursuing an annualized income of 15% to 20%. The total market capitalization of Maotai now, and considering its future profit growth space, I think it can still be held.

Moderator:Next, let's ask Mr. Qiao. We all know that Mr. Qiao has profound attainments in both the mainland and Hong Kong markets. This year, your main sources of income also come from Hong Kong stocks. Which industry do you make the most money in Hong Kong stocks this year? Why did you choose it in the first place?

Qiao Xuan:The most profitable stock in Hong Kong this year is Baoxin Motor, which comes from the automobile industry. The reason for choosing it at that time was that I had been operating on this stock for more than a year, starting from Guanghui Motor's acquisition of Baoxin Automobile at the end of 2015. This arbitrage ended in June 2016, because it was a partial offer, and the offer price was 5.99. As a result, after the invitation, it plummeted directly after the resumption of trading in September, falling to between 2.3 and 2.5. I estimate that this price is very undervalued because it is market sentiment. At this price, arbitrageurs have a little meat to eat and keep the price very low.

On the other hand, there is the industry. the whole automobile industry began to recover in 2015, and the increase in 2016 was very good. In 2016, we saw that the sales of manufacturers such as Geely and Guangzhou Automobile were very good. The sales of Zhongsheng Group, a car dealer, is also growing very fast. Baoxin, which is also in a luxury car dealer, should not be in a state of underestimation, so I began to build positions substantially in the second half of 2016. Finally, there was a return of value in the first quarter of 2017, so it got a very good return in this respect.

Moderator:Speaking of Hong Kong stocks, I know that Boss Wang also has a large position in Hong Kong stocks. What do you think of the sharp rise in the price of core asset stocks in the past year?

Wang Daixin:Let me first talk about a general judgment. I think now everyone is talking about the switching of core assets. Core assets have been up for two years or more. Is there still an opportunity in the future? there are also many small and medium-sized falling companies, whether there is a switch. Many strategic analysts of securities firms have discussed this topic. My overall judgment is, I don't think this is that easy. We are now classified as the companies in the core assets. It is true that the increase is not small, but it is far from the degree of bubble, there will be a lot of room for decline to exceed, this is my judgment.

It is true that small and medium-sized entrepreneurship has fallen a lot, and this year is an out-and-out bear market for many small and medium-sized venture stocks, but many small and medium-sized venture stocks are still difficult to buy from an investment point of view, and it has indeed fallen a lot, but it was still too expensive before, so I still can't buy it. Of course, this cannot be generalized. A speculative master once said that the relationship between the stock price and the intrinsic value of the company is like the relationship between the stock price and the intrinsic value of the company, just as the owner leads a dog, which runs in front of the owner and behind the master. In the long run, it follows the owner.

So are the core assets. I think some companies are really expensive and I can't buy them at all, but from the point of view of most people, the intrinsic value of this company still supports the market capitalization and stock price of this company. Even among these companies, I think we can still find some such targets after the sharp rise in share prices and undervalued ones. In the future, I think these assets will definitely be divided, some companies that are doing well will continue to reach new highs, and for some companies that are not doing so well, their share prices will fall, or even stagnate for many years.

Including small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, we also have some targets of concern, and if the stock price continues to fall, we will also buy, so it is very difficult to judge whether the market style will change or not. My personal view has always been.We put most of the targets on those important and knowable things, and whether the market style will change next year is a very important question. What is the trend of the market next year? this is a very important question.But I also think this is an unknown problem, because I think the overall market trend as a whole is a very complex system, involving a lot of variables, with the human brain dealing with so many variables. the probability of finally coming to a correct conclusion is actually relatively low.So we spend more energy on stock selection, research and tracking of some enterprises.

Moderator:With regard to stock selection, we will later ask the three of you in detail about your stock selection experience, but you have also mentioned that, just like what we said just now about core asset stocks, beautiful 50 has also become the focus of everyone's discussion. Next, I would like to ask Boss Liu, what do you think of the current offensive nature of beautiful 50? Will there be a persistence in its continuous state?

Liu Qiaoji:Just now Boss Wang also talked about the issue of core assets. in fact, in my eyes, the beautiful 50 represents the leader of China's economy in a sense. Their overall valuation is now about 12 times the price-to-earnings ratio, although it has gone up as a whole. But I think its valuation is still reasonably low.

For the so-called core assets, we make value investments, not just beautiful indexes, or small and medium-sized entrepreneurship and innovation. We did not give it the title. I think if its industry is relatively promising, its management team is excellent, it can bring us some excellent products and services, if its price is undervalued or reasonable. We are all willing to allocate a certain core position to it. So in my eyes, the beautiful 50 or the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, some excellent enterprises will continue to divide in the future, but as a whole, with its return on equity rising, its top should continue to rise, so for the coming year, I think this beautiful index will go up as a whole, these are some of my views.

Moderator:To what extent will it rise?

Liu Qiaoji:The beautiful 50% return on equity is basically increasing at a rate of 15%, and if it maintains its current valuation at this time next year, its bottom will normally rise by about 15%.

Liu Qiaoji, chairman of Jiuxiao Investment

Moderator:I know that Boss Liu is still very aggressive when making investments, so I just asked such a question about forecasting. Next, let's ask Boss Qiao. I know that Boss Wang and Boss Liu are biased towards value investment. Boss Qiao, you are biased towards trend investment. Can you help us share and introduce your secrets about trend investment?

Qiao Xuan:In fact, I am not biased, I am a combination of value investment and trend, there is no secret book, mainly depends on the market.First of all, let's take a look at the bull and bear market of the overall market.For example, both A shares and Hong Kong stocks are bullish this year, and it is much easier to pick stocks and pick up the industry. The second is to select the industry. the industry we choose is with large capacity, and then the growth is relatively good, preferably with more than 10% growth. at present, the market is also optimistic about this industry. we think that there are a lot of white horse shares in this industry. our choice of the company is very clear, the company does not need in-depth research, can also obtain very good benefits. This is my top-down strategy.

Another point is the event-driven trend, event-driven in A shares, Hong Kong stocks is a very big factor, many investors do stocks is actually event-driven.For example, this week there was a heated discussion about Poly Real Estate Group, which was triggered by an announcement. Poly Real Estate acquired 50% of its parent company Poly Hong Kong shares, which increased by 25% in six trading days. I also analyzed this announcement. Then bought a little position, a little bit of income, such an opportunity is a trend triggered by the event.

Qiao Xuan, fund manager of Jingyuanxuan

Moderator:Therefore, to judge the event, it is more likely to follow the hot event, and judge the impact of this event on the follow-up.

The last question, I think, is also the most important one for all of us. From an offensive point of view, please analyze the three of you separately. What is the most promising industry for next year? We very much welcome three people to recommend individual stocks directly.

Wang Daixin:People are more concerned about the industry. in fact, like what I do, we usually track about 40 or 50 companies. These companies are distributed in more than a dozen industries. What industry has the opportunity or what company has the opportunity actually depends on its price. Because our core ability to invest, the core difference between everyone, from the perspective of investment, is actually your valuation ability. Whether you are valuing growth stocks or some asset companies. So as long as there is a suitable price, I think I will buy all the stocks in our industries.

Let me give you three examples to communicate with you. For example, several industries that are very popular this year, such as the real estate industry, this year is the big year of the inner housing stock, these leading companies of the inner housing stock all have a very big increase, is there still a chance for the housing stock next year? The real estate industry still has the object of our concern. If everyone agrees with the logic of the inner housing stock, in fact, the increase in A-share real estate is not big. We can still find individual stocks like Sunac China a year ago, even in an overall expensive market like A-share. I think there are some such potential targets.

Even if it is Hong Kong's inner housing stocks, it is true that many leading stocks have risen very high, but I think there are still some opportunities for second-tier real estate companies.The consensus on the real estate industry is that the market share will increase, and the stronger the leading companies will be. I indeed think this is a long-term trend. But I always think that what makes us lose most in the stock market is not those wrong ideas, sometimes it is some correct consensus, the consensus is right, and the future development is indeed as expected, but once a consensus is reached, if everyone goes to do something, my personal instinct will feel that there must be something wrong with this thing. Of course, the premise is that you have to make sure that everyone is going to do something.

Moderator:So in the end, did you overturn your previous prediction?

Wang Daixin:So we still have to analyze it from the perspective of individual stocks.

Moderator:Then would you recommend some stocks?

Wang Daixin:I can remind you that the real estate I just mentioned, including the research on real estate on the snowball, is very in-depth, and it should be easy for us to dig up these targets. And for example, insurance, like our leading stocks, like Ping an's share price has doubled this year.Due to the high growth in insurance business prices, connotation value and new business prices in the past two years, it is possible that the growth rate will not be so fast next year due to the high base, but there will still be double-digit growth.A big advantage next year is that there will be a great improvement in the income statement. For leading companies like Ping an, the sector of life insurance business alone, the profit growth in the first half of next year will reach about 20 billion. The bibcock has gone up, but there are still some insurance companies that have not gone up, even those insurance companies that are growing faster than Ping An Insurance, so I think there must be some opportunities.

There is also a lot of discussion about banks. This year, banks with dominant liabilities have risen very well. Next year, with the landing of a series of strong supervision, such as financial supervision, including the emergence of regulatory measures for bank asset management business, these benefits are slowly running out.I think banks that have done well in the asset side in the past, banks whose share prices have fallen this year will have a chance next year. I don't say which bank, everyone knows very well. So what we do is still focus on individual stocks.

Moderator:Thank you very much, Boss Wang. Next, please Boss Liu.

Liu Qiaoji:Speaking of which industries and individual stocks I am optimistic about in the future, what is my personal experience? When we make value investment, first of all, our company's system should start with the industry, find a good industry, and then find a good company, and finally, on the basis of a good price, and then select what we need to pay attention to at a certain stage in the future. it is probably the weakly related 5mur7 industries, and then allocate a certain core position on this basis.

Which industries will I be optimistic about in the future? First, it has a lot of space, or it has a congenital advantage. Second, the industry it is in has strong bargaining power for the upstream and downstream. Third, it has subversive technology, so on the whole, I am not only considering from the bottom up, I want to look at the industry first, and then look at this company. Whether this team can have a sentimental and sincere management team, soul.Therefore, the industries that I am optimistic about in the future mainly include big finance, big health, new energy vehicles, and big consumption.

As for the level of individual stocks, I am very optimistic about enterprises like Tesla, Inc., because it represents the future direction.Specific to the domestic products that can be bought, I think we can take a look at life insurance, similar to New China Life Insurance, China Taiping, I think we can pay attention to it.

Moderator:Thank you, Boss Liu, it is becoming more and more specific. Next is Boss Qiao. Please tell me the details.

Qiao Xuan:I also look at it from the top down. First of all, the industry. I require the industry to maintain at least a relatively large capacity and rapid growth, for example,Insurance industry, asset management industry, big consumption, technology sector, as well as clean energy, education and other sectors, these are my key concerns, because these industries are growing fast.High-quality companies will grow faster and more likely to sell bull stocks. Of course, some of these plates have gone up a lot, overall.Next year, I will be more optimistic about the asset management industry, which has not risen much at present, in which there are two stocks: China Huarong and China Cinda.The whole industry can maintain more than 10% annual growth, and the leader can maintain more than 30% income growth. I think it is good, and the valuation is low.

Moderator:Thank you very much. Applause for the three of you. Thank you for your wonderful sharing.