The growth rate of elevator production remained high in June, and the industry boom is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of the year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national elevator output from January to June was 463000, an increase of 18.1% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.1pct over the cumulative growth rate of 17% from January to May, and was in a high boom range. In addition, some market participants judge that the elevator production growth rate will decline in the second half of the year according to the growth rate of new orders, but according to the grass-roots research of our industrial chain, we expect the high growth rate of elevator production to continue at least until the end of this year, exceeding market expectations.

Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council said that transforming old residential areas and developing community services is not only a livelihood project, but also an important starting point for cultivating the domestic market and expanding domestic demand, which can not only stimulate effective investment, but also promote consumption, and drive a large number of employment. there is broad space for development, and it is necessary to do a good job in this big article. According to grass-roots research, at present, the total cost of installing an elevator is about 30-500000. According to incomplete statistics, 17 provinces across the country have introduced elevator subsidy policies, and the subsidy amount for each elevator is about 10-250000. According to the current practice, 3-7 floor residents share the installation costs, it is estimated that after the subsidy, each household needs to contribute about 20-50,000 (2 households on each floor), but after the installation of elevators, the house price increases by thousands of yuan per square meter, with a better rate of return. According to the investigation of the industrial chain, most of the major elevator enterprises have set the goal of doubling the installation of ladders in the old buildings in 2019. It is estimated that only the market of adding new ladders in the old buildings is expected to increase the growth rate of the elevator industry by about 5pcts.

The certainty of elevator business growth is high. The per capita number of elevators is 140 / 10,000 in South Korea and 105 / 10,000 in Europe, while the per capita number of elevators in China in 2018 is only 48 / 10,000, and the per capita number of elevators in China's urban population is only 84 / 10,000. It is judged that with the increase of urbanization rate and per capita elevator, the market demand for new elevators in China is far from reaching its peak. At the same time, as the policy promotes the concentration of the maintenance market to elevator enterprises, we judge that by 2025Shanghai mechanical and electricalThere is still room for double the growth of profits of leading enterprises, with a compound annual growth rate of about 15%, while Shanghai Mechatronics is currently only 9.3X in 2019.

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