Event: The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 5.5 billion yuan, +51.0%, net profit of 450 million yuan, +54.4%, net profit of 4.2 billion yuan, and net profit of 4.2 billion yuan, +56.8% year-on-year; of these, Q3 achieved revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, +47.3% year-on-year, and net profit of 120 million yuan, +1.0%, -30.7% month-on-month. The total amount of impairment reserves calculated by the company in the first three quarters was 71.458 million yuan, of which 22.353 million yuan was prepared for credit impairment and 49.05 million yuan for asset impairment. The company's impairment was mainly due to data center operations. Excluding the impact of the company's impairment, profit still increased month-on-month.
New energy continues to contribute to the company's main performance. We expect the company's new energy to achieve revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in the third quarter. Looking at a single quarter, q1, q2, and q3 achieved revenue of 6.5/8/1.25 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a growth rate of 33.3%/58.3%, of which energy storage contributed the main growth momentum. The company actively lays out the new energy business. From a domestic perspective, new energy installations may face a short-term downturn after the peak of domestic grid connection in 630. In the long run, energy storage demand has not changed, and is still showing a high growth trend.
Be optimistic about the development of data center business, and lay out computing infrastructure services and intelligent computing product platforms. We expect the company's data center business to achieve revenue of 1.97 billion yuan in the first three quarters, of which Q3 is expected to achieve revenue of 540 million yuan in a single quarter, a slight decrease from month to month. The main reason is that the company will conduct customer volume screening and focus on large customers in the future. On October 25, the company's tenth large-scale self-built data center, Beijing Yunzhu Data Center Day, was officially released. It is the first data center approved for “Industrial Internet+AI” in Beijing. In addition, the company has fully deployed the development and application of cold plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling to minimize energy consumption.
Expense control capabilities have been further improved, and the overall trend in 2023 is declining. The company's fee rate for the first three quarters was 17.9%, down 3.1 pp from 2022. Looking at a single quarter, the cost rate for the Q3 period was 17.24%, of which the sales expense rate was 8.0%, -0.2 pp, the management fee rate is 3.01%, the month-on-month rate is +0.1 pp, the R&D expenses rate is 5.2%, the month-on-month ratio is -0.8 pp, and the financial expenses rate is 1.0%, and +0.3 pp month-on-month. The company's expense ratio showed a downward trend starting this year. The three quarters of q1q2q3 were relatively stable, and the company's cost reduction was very effective.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The 2023-2025 EPS is expected to be 1.57 yuan, 2.09 yuan, and 2.86 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 17 times, 13 times, and 9 times, respectively. The company's 22-year plan has positive goals, and reforms continue to be implemented. It is optimistic that growth will accelerate throughout the year and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: increased market competition risk, overseas policy risk, risk of industry development falling short of expectations.