[Research Report Summary]
The operating performance of enterprises in the 2019H1 pharmaceutical sector continued to diverge. We forecast the 2019 interim results of the 37 major pharmaceutical sector listed companies covered. Among them, Guimu's net profit growth rate was over 40%Yifeng Pharmacy,Lepu Healthcare,Golden Med,General medical treatment,Zhifei Biology,Jianfan Biology,KELLY TAY,Wandong Medicaletc. 8 companies. The net profit growth rate of Guimu is 30% to 40%Huadong Pharmaceutical,Changchun Hi-Tech,Ayr Ophthalmology,Liuyao Co., LtdIncluding 4 companies; those with Guimu's net profit growth rate of 20% to 30%Hengrui Pharmaceuticals,Mindray Healthcare,Daisanrin,Common people,Hualan Biology,Pien Tsai Chun,IsshindoIncluding 7 companies; Guimu's net profit growth rate is 0 to 20%Sinopharm Co., Ltd.,Shanghai Pharmaceuticals,Yuyue Medical,Yunnan Baiyao,Tenshiki,Fosun Pharmaceuticals,Kanghong Pharmaceutical,Sunflower Pharmaceutical,Chinese medicine is consistent,KajidoIncluding 10 companies, covering the estimated number of companiesMedicine, Ming Kang De,Donga Ejiao,Nobutachi Yasushi,Colon Pharmaceuticals,International medicine,Establishing medical treatment,Ruikang Pharmaceutical,Chinese medicineThe net profit growth rate of the remaining eight companies returned to their mother was negative.
Review of sector performance: Since the beginning of 2019 (20190717), the pharmaceutical sector's revenue was +22.7%, ranking 10th, outperforming the market by 0.2 percentage points; this month (20190701 to 20190717), the pharmaceutical sector's revenue was -1.6%, ranking 5th in performance, outperforming the market by 1.2 percentage points. Currently, the price-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical sector is 25.44 times. Relative market premium of 106%.
Investment Strategy: Innovation has stronger pricing power to cope with health insurance fee control, and policy havens seek the intersection of prosperity and safe haven.
1) Main line of innovation: innovative drug leader Hengrui Pharmaceutical; leading CRO drug Ming Kangde; domestic innovative device leaders Mindray Medical and Lepu Medical; 2) Blood products: leading blood products with sufficient plasma sources and high comprehensive utilization of plasmaTiantan Creature, Hualan Biotech; 3) Medical Services & Pharmacies: Aier Ophthalmology, Jinyu Medicine, Yifeng Pharmacy, Ordinary People; 4) Health Consumption Upgrades:Tong Ren Tang,Shandahuatte.
Risk warning: Policy changes have been stronger than expected; drug and consumables collection policies are advancing beyond expectations.