occurrences
The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. 2023Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 81,119 billion yuan, +39.38% year-on-year; realized net profit of 5.077 billion yuan, +111.34% year-on-year; and realized net profit after deduction of net profit of 5.120 billion yuan, +128.49% year-on-year. 2023Q3 achieved operating income of 31,736 billion yuan, +41.25% year-on-month, +13.08%; realized net profit of 1,537 billion yuan, +35.67% year-on-year, -13.26%; and realized net profit after deduction of 1,408 billion yuan, +29.14% year-on-year, -28.96% month-on-month.
Comment:
Production capacity is being deployed in an orderly manner, and TOPCON is about to be released. According to the company's WeChat account, in October 2023, the second phase of the 10GW N-type TopCon battery+10GW N-type component project at the company's Huai'an base was fully put into operation. The company is actively deploying the N-type battery field. Currently, the average efficiency of the highest mass production line has reached 25.8%, and the Extreme N-type 700W+ module has been mass-produced. The company expects the production capacity of silicon wafers, cells, and modules to reach 50GW, 75GW, and 95GW respectively by the end of 2023, of which the production capacity of N-type i-TopCon batteries will reach 40GW.
Continuously improve the overall solution capabilities of photovoltaic systems. According to the company's WeChat account, the company's tracking bracket achieved another breakthrough in the Latin American market in 2023Q3. The company and China Power Construction signed a tracking bracket supply agreement for the Tepui photovoltaic power plant in Colombia in Latin America, which will provide it with a 108MW intelligent tracking system. The company's scaffolding business has a shipment target of more than 8 GW throughout the year. The distributed system business targets more than 10 GW throughout the year. At the same time, the company continues to enrich distributed photovoltaic application scenarios. Under household scenarios, the company pioneered the release of “Fujia Photovoltaic Garden”, and launched a new Tianneng Wa 3.0 PRO photovoltaic roof maintenance system to promote the transformation of building energy.
The energy storage business continues to expand, and the scale of integrated industrial layout is rapidly expanding. The company's annual shipment target for energy storage systems is 3-4 GWh. On the production capacity manufacturing side, the company is deeply involved in the vertical integration industry. The company expects the energy storage battery, DC battery compartment and AC/DC product combination to reach 12 GWh production capacity by the end of 2023, and the 2024Q2 will reach 25 GWh by the end of 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 1121.95, 1340.41, and 166.037 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, 19.5%, and 23.9%. Net profit is 75.69, 94.55, and 12.396 billion yuan, respectively, up 105.7%, 24.9% and 31.1% year on year. The current stock price corresponding to 2023-2025 PE is 8.13, 6.51, and 4.96 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: PV demand falls short of expectations, risk of changes in technology routes, risk of production progress falling short of expectations, etc.