Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. The company's revenue was 29.689 billion yuan (+10.3%), net profit of the mother was 4.123 billion yuan (+78.9%), and net profit after deducting non-return mother was 3.853 billion yuan (+42.46%). In the third quarter alone, the company's revenue was 9.379 billion yuan (+5.4%), net profit was 1,295 billion yuan (+61.05%), and net profit after deducting non-treasury net profit was 1,116 billion yuan (+6.28%). Q3 The impact of non-recurring profit and loss mainly comes from government subsidies of $73 million, fair value changes in fair value, and investment income of $146 million included in the current period.
Commentary:
Performance is growing steadily, and the four major business divisions are improving steadily. The company relies on the four major divisions of pharmaceuticals, health products, traditional Chinese medicine resources, and provincial medicine as its core base, and actively lays out new business growth points. On this basis, Yunnan Baiyao continued its steady trend in the third quarter, achieving revenue of 9.379 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year; net profit of 1,295 billion yuan, an increase of 61.05% over the previous year; and net profit after deducting 1,116 billion yuan, an increase of 6.28% over the previous year. The company adheres to the brand as the core and expands its business layout in various fields such as medicine, health, and traditional Chinese medicine resources. The products have evolved from a single hemostatic product to a huge Yunnan Baiyao industry group, covering various fields of the big health industry. Among them, various products such as Yunnan Baiyao aerosol, white medicine cream, capsules, toothpaste, band-aids, and 37 rank among the top market segments. From January to September of this year, there was a steady increase in the four major business divisions, and the performance of multiple products was increased.
Investment in R&D continues to increase, continuing to drive endogenous growth. Responding to the iterative upgrading of consumer demand through product innovation and upgrading is the endogenous growth logic that the company has adhered to for a long time. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company continued to increase its R&D innovation efforts. The R&D expenditure was 219 million yuan, an increase of 5.17% over the previous year. The company set up an R&D management committee to manage the overall R&D system, using the R&D ideas of inheriting the essence of Yunnan traditional Chinese medicine, empowering health product upgrades, careful layout of innovative drugs, and AI-assisted drug design as R&D ideas, unified resources and efficient overall management to achieve an increase in R&D efficiency. It is expected that future R&D investment will be on the rise.
Strengthen pharmaceutical cooperation with Shanghai to effectively empower the development of both sides. 1) Making full use of the sales advantages of both parties, in the future, the company will be able to promote a number of products that require academic promotion and in-hospital development, using Shanghai Pharmaceutical's strong advantages in hospital product development. 2) The company collaborated with the tripartite procurement centers of Shanghai Pharmaceutical and Tianjin Pharmaceutical, and many varieties will be jointly procured one after another. Eight varieties have been jointly procured this year, optimizing the company's costs. In the future, the proportion and quantity of joint procurement between the three parties will be further increased. 3) In collaboration between R&D and hospital clinical fields, the company's R&D system is mainly based on traditional Chinese medicine. In recent years, nuclear drugs and innovative drugs have begun to be deployed. Shanghai Pharmaceutical has been developing innovative drugs for a longer period of time, which can provide the company with more experience and collaboration.
Be optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating. Given the impressive performance of the company's main business since this year, while actively laying out new business growth points, the impact of changes in fair value on performance is also gradually becoming clear. We are optimistic about the company's future performance growth potential and adjusted the company's net profit to 45.9/52.7/6.07 billion yuan in 23-25 (the original forecast value of net profit for 23-25 was 39.08/47.03/5.653 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 53%, 14.8%, 15.1%. According to the company's historical valuation and industry trends, the target PE for 2023 is 28 times, and the target price is 71.7 yuan. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Growth in core businesses such as petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals fell short of expectations.