23Q3 revenue was $2,028 million, down 14.8% from the same period, and net profit was $75 million, up 0.5% from the same period.
The company's 23Q1-3 revenue was 5.816 billion dollars, a decrease of 6.4%; 23Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue and year-on-year growth rate of 1,759 billion (yoy -5.04%) /2,029 billion (yoy +2.4%) /2,028 billion (yoy -14.8%); 23Q1-3 net profit of 202 million, same decrease of 4.2%; 23Q1/Q2/Q3 net profit and year-on-year growth rate of 61 million (yoy -4.4%) /0.66 billion (yoy -8.8%) /75 million (yoy+) 0.46%); 23Q1-3 deducted $204 million, an increase of 1.3%; 23Q1/Q2/Q3 deducted non-return net profit and a year-on-year growth rate of $58 million (yoy -6.4%) /61 million (yoy -11.5%) /84 million (yoy +20.9%).
The gross profit ratio of 23Q1-3 is 9.5%, the net profit margin is 3.8%, and the same increase is 0.2pct23q1-3, the sales expense ratio is 1.2%, the same increase is 0.3 pct; the management expense ratio (including the R&D cost rate) is 2.72%, the same increase is 0.3 pct. The main reason is that 23H1 increased investment in digital intelligence, informatization, etc.; and the financial expense ratio was 0.2%, down 0.07 pct.
Domestic and foreign channels are working collaboratively. Leading companies in the metal beverage can industry maintain the digital transformation and deepen the “one headquarters, multiple bases” management model. The core competitiveness has increased markedly, strengthening the market leadership position in the metal beverage can segment. At the same time, the production capacity layout has been continuously optimized, and production bases have been set up in the east, south, north, central and western regions. Under the model of “centralized procurement and zoned supply” by users, it has a good production capacity layout advantage. The company firmly promotes the “internal and external linkage” internationalization strategy and accelerates the company's internationalization development process.
Intelligent manufacturing management has been effective. Technology integration and innovation empowers multiple sets of information management systems such as integrated ERP systems, multi-factory real-time management systems (MES), and digital energy management signage systems developed independently by personalized companies to control high-standard processes from all aspects of raw materials, production, inventory and transportation to ensure the quality and safety of user products and effectively improve management efficiency. The company continues to promote research on the application of material thinning and molding technology; promoting the smooth production of the first flexible line in China; integrating digital printing with traditional printing processes; and constructing flexible customization capabilities in multiple dimensions to meet the diverse needs of customers.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain “buy” ratings
Currently, the company has established long-term and stable strategic partnerships with well-known domestic and foreign FMCG brand customers, including Coca Cola, Pepsi, Snowflake, Budweiser, Carlsberg, Tsingtao Brewery, Wang Laoji, and Wangwang. At the same time, the research, development and demonstration application 1.0 project of the dual-carbon dual-control platform was promoted. It is the first enterprise in the domestic packaging industry to achieve digital management of process-level carbon data throughout the entire plant and the first to publish a low-carbon technology roadmap for the packaging industry. Taking into account the company's performance (the company's 23Q1-3 revenue was 5.816 billion dollars, a decrease of 6.4%, net profit of 202 million dollars, a decrease of 4.2%), we adjusted our profit forecast.
It is estimated that the company's net profit for 23-25 will return to the mother of 28/3.03/336 million yuan (previous values were 3.05/3.74/423 million yuan, respectively), EPS is 0.25/0.27/0.30 yuan/share, and corresponding PE is 23/21/19x, respectively.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic environment fluctuations and demand falling short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of increased industry competition.