Core views
On the evening of October 30, the company released its report for the third quarter of 2023. Among them, the Q3 quarter achieved operating income of 9.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.40%; realized net profit of 1,295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.05%; realized net profit after deduction of profit of 1,116 billion yuan, an increase of 6.28% over the previous year; the apparent rapid growth on the profit side was mainly due to: 1) the relatively good recovery of core businesses such as the pharmaceutical division; 2) the fair value variable income during the holding period of stocks and other transactional financial assets increased significantly compared to the same period last year. As the company continues to promote its main business around core business segments while making every effort to expand incremental development space, focusing on cultivating emerging business units and creating new performance growth points, we are optimistic about the company's ability to continue to grow in the future.
occurrences
The company released its report for the third quarter of 2023
On the evening of October 30, the company released its report for the third quarter of 2023, achieving total operating income of 29.689 billion yuan, an increase of 10.30% over the previous year; realized net profit of 4.123 billion yuan, an increase of 78.90% over the previous year; and realized net profit of 3.853 billion yuan, an increase of 42.46% over the previous year. The performance was in line with our previous expectations.
Brief review
The revenue side continued to grow steadily, and the Q3 performance was in line with expectations
Overall, the company achieved revenue of 29.689 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 23 years, an increase of 10.30%; realized net profit of 4.123 billion yuan, an increase of 78.90%; achieved net profit of 3.853 billion yuan, an increase of 42.46% over the previous year. The overall performance performance was in line with our previous expectations; among them, Q3 achieved operating income of 9.379 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 5.40% over the previous year. The revenue side basically continued the H1 growth trend. Driven by the core pharmaceutical division, it achieved steady growth; achieved net profit from the original mother It was 1,295 billion yuan, up 61.05% year on year; net profit after deduction was 1,116 billion yuan, up 6.28% year on year; the rapid growth achieved on the apparent profit side was mainly due to: 1) the relatively good recovery of core businesses such as the pharmaceutical division; and 2) the fair value change income during the holding period of stocks and other transactional financial assets increased significantly compared to the same period last year.
Looking at the first three quarters of 2023 by division: ① Pharmaceutical Division: Through central output and product-driven methods, the company achieved multi-product expansion and growth in the commercial and OTC sectors. At the same time, through channel traceability and control, and product strategies for core products and strategies, it is expected that the company's core pharmaceutical division will achieve steady growth driven by categories such as core products and cold respiratory categories. ② Health Products Division: In the oral care sector, the company seizes opportunities to increase brand exposure in multiple dimensions through an online and offline “two-pronged approach”. Yunnan Baiyao toothpaste is expected to exceed the industry average growth; in the anti-loss care sector, the company focuses on consolidating brand terminal construction and joint promotion, and the health products division is expected to achieve steady growth; the overall performance of the health products division is expected to be stable. ③ Traditional Chinese Medicine Resources Division: The company is actively promoting the brand Chinese herbal medicine project, further strengthening the 377 industrial platform, and continuing to stabilize its leading position in the market in the 377 field. It is expected that the steady growth trend of H1 will continue under the impetus of the key strategic variety 37. ④ Provincial Pharmaceutical Company (commercial sector): The company actively seeks new product distribution authorizations from suppliers, integrates channel resources, and collaborates with subsidiaries to strengthen regional platform construction. It is expected to achieve steady growth under the influence of the external environment.
Looking forward to the whole year: Continuously consolidating the four main businesses and making every effort to expand the space for incremental development Looking forward to the whole year. In terms of the four main businesses, the pharmaceutical division is expected to maintain a restorative growth trend driven by the core Yunnan Baiyao series and branded traditional Chinese medicine; the health products division is expected to gradually resume steady growth driven by the oral care and anti-loss care series, while the three new BUs for oral intelligence, medical aesthetics, and new retail health services are expected to drive the company's continued release of health consumer products in the next few years; as the company continues to promote the brand's Chinese herbal medicine project and promote the expansion of fresh varieties of processing, Medicinal Resources Division It is expected to maintain a good growth trend driven by branded medicinal herbs; in terms of provincial pharmaceutical companies, the company will continue to integrate upstream and downstream resources in the supply chain, continuously explore new profit models, accelerate process, digitization and intelligent construction, and continuously improve supply chain service capabilities, and is expected to achieve continuous recovery throughout the year.
Overall, as the company's four main business segments go hand in hand, it continues to consolidate its leading position on the segmented racetrack, and at the same time strictly controls the investment scale in the secondary market, and gradually shrinks the investment scale in the secondary market; under the new strategic direction, the company will continue to promote its main business around the core business sector, while making every effort to expand incremental development space, focus on cultivating emerging business units, create new performance growth points, and be optimistic about the company's ability to continue to grow in the future.
The quality of operations remains healthy, and the rest of the financial indicators are basically normal
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 27.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 percentage points, mainly due to changes in revenue structure; the sales expense ratio was 11.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.18pp, which remained basically stable; the management expense ratio was 1.87%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.12pp, and the fee control effect was ideal; the R&D expenses rate was 0.74%, a decrease of 0.04pp; net cash flow from operating activities increased by 33.33% year-on-year, mainly due to changes in the revenue structure; the increase in cash received from sales of products and services in the current period compared to the same period last year ; Net cash flow from investment activities increased by 108.17% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in cash disbursements for current investments compared to the same period last year. Other financial indicators are generally normal.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 39.116 billion yuan, 41,964 billion yuan and 45.55 billion yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, and net profit of 4.346 billion yuan, 4.783 billion yuan and 5.289 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 44.8%, 10.1% and 10.6%, equivalent to EPS of 2.42 yuan/share, 2.66 yuan/share and 2.94 yuan/share, corresponding PE of 20.9x, 19.0x and 17.2x, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk analysis
1. The recovery in hospital treatment volume falls short of expectations: home diagnosis and treatment volume is gradually promoted after the epidemic, and hospital treatment volume may be affected, thereby affecting the sales of prescription drugs, which in turn affects the company's overall profit; 2. Impact of policy changes in the pharmaceutical industry: pharmaceutical collection policies may lead to a reduction in the price of the company's products, or a decline in sales, which in turn affects the company's revenue and profit expectations; 3. Intense competition in the consumer goods industry: events such as increased market competition may lead to lower prices of the company's products, lower market share, etc.; 4. New shareholder entry and management Team A's run-in time is longer than Market expectations; 5. The progress and intensity of extended mergers and acquisitions is difficult to predict.