SANY INTERNATIONAL(631.HK):WEAK REVENUE GROWTH IN THE PRICE; OVERSEAS GROWTH STORY STILL INTACT
SANY INTERNATIONAL(631.HK):WEAK REVENUE GROWTH IN THE PRICE; OVERSEAS GROWTH STORY STILL INTACT
Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI's share price has been weak since early Oct. Its share price was under further pressure yesterday (1 Nov) following the release of weaker-than-expected revenue growth (26% YoY) despite decent earnings growth (46% YoY) in 3Q23. We revise down our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecast by 5%/9%/7% after factoring in lower sales growth of road header and CCMU. That said, we believe SANYI's growth story remains intact as new products in overseas such as large mining truck & Telescopic forklift (伸缩臂叉车) will help counter the potential downside of coal mining machinery. Our TP is revised down to HK$15.4, based on unchanged P/E of 19x (2023E earnings). We believe the risk is largely in the price and we see the current risk/reward profile attractive.
受全球主要同行疲软的拖累，三一的股价自10月初以来一直疲软。尽管23年第三季度收益增长良好（同比增长46％），但收入增长（同比增长26％）仍低于预期。昨日（11月1日），三一的股价承受了进一步的压力。考虑到Road Header和CCMU的销售增长放缓，我们将2023年E/24E/25E的收益预测下调了5％/9％/7％。话虽如此，我们相信三一的增长故事仍然完好无损，因为大型采矿卡车和伸缩叉车（伸缩叉车）等海外新产品将有助于抵消煤矿机械的潜在不利影响。根据市盈率为19倍（2023年度收益）不变，我们的目标下调至15.4港元。我们认为风险主要在于价格，我们认为当前的风险/回报状况很有吸引力。
Reasons for the slowdown of revenue growth in 3Q23: Revenue in 3Q23 grew 26% YoY to RMB5bn (mining equipment: +9% to RMB2.9bn; logistics equipment: +10% to RMB1.5bn; oil & gas equipment: RMB520mn; emerging business: c.RMB100mn). Management explained that the slow growth of mining equipment was due to the delay of delivery of certain products including coal mining equipment (due to lower coal price versus last year) and wide-body truck (due to unfavourable weather condition).
23年第三季度收入增长放缓的原因：23年第三季度收入同比增长26％至50亿元人民币（采矿设备：增长9％，至29亿元人民币；物流设备：增长10％至15亿元人民币；石油和天然气设备：5.2亿元人民币；新兴业务：约1亿元人民币）。管理层解释说，采矿设备增长缓慢是由于某些产品的交付延迟，包括煤炭开采设备（由于煤炭价格低于去年）和宽体卡车（由于天气条件不利）。
Coal mining equipment. For road headers, we now forecast RMB2.6bn of revenue for the full year (-13% YoY), which has already taken into consideration of the weakness in 2H23E. We forecast roader header sales in 2024E will be largely stable, but with higher ASP thanks to more integrated models. For CCMU, we forecast 22% YoY growth for the full year as SANYI has continued to obtain new customers. In 2024E, management expects growth to accelerate with the potential contribution of electro hydraulic control.
煤炭开采设备。对于路标，我们现在预计全年收入为26亿元人民币（同比下降13％），这已经考虑到了2H23E 的疲软。我们预测，2024E年的敞篷车销量将基本保持稳定，但由于车型更加集成，ASP将更高。对于CCMU，由于三一持续获得新客户，我们预计全年将同比增长22％。管理层预计，在2024E年，随着电动液压控制的潜在贡献，增长将加速。
Mining trucks. For large mining trucks, we see potential upside as SANYI targets to achieve RMB1bn/2bn sales in 2023E/24E. For wide-body trucks, SANYI is expanding the sales of electric, large-size models. The mainstream models have already been moved to 70T from 60T, while 90T & 100T models have been launched in 4Q. Besides, electric models have been introduced to European customers.
矿用卡车。对于大型矿用卡车，我们看到了潜在的上行空间，因为三一的目标是在2023年/24E年实现10亿元/20亿元人民币的销售额。在宽体卡车方面，三一正在扩大电动大尺寸车型的销售。主流车型已经从60T转移到70T，而90T和100T车型已在第四季度推出。此外，还向欧洲客户推出了电动车型。
Telescopic forklift. SANYI maintains the target to achieve RMB950mn revenue (+4x YoY) in 2023E and RMB2bn in 2024E (+1x YoY).
伸缩式叉车。三一维持在2023年度实现9.5亿元人民币收入（同比增长4倍）和2024E年实现20亿元人民币（同比增长1倍）的目标。
Latest backlog: As at end Oct, total backlog stood at RMB11bn (similar to Aug). For CCMU, c.RMB1.9bn of orders will be postponed to 1Q24E.
最新积压：截至10月底，积压总额为110亿元人民币（与8月类似）。对于CCMU，19亿元人民币的订单将推迟到 1Q24E。
Major risk factors: (1) weakness in mining activities; (2) development of new products below expectation; and (3) rebound of raw material costs.
主要风险因素：（1）采矿活动疲软；（2）新产品开发低于预期；（3）原材料成本反弹。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。