Event: On October 30, the company released its 2023 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue/net profit of 61.64/-358 million yuan, -3.98%/-889.75% over the same period last year, with a basic EPS of -0.60 yuan. 23Q3 achieved revenue/net profit of 20.46/-0.02 billion yuan, -20.13%/-101.82% year-on-year.
Low pig prices dragged down revenue growth in the first three quarters, and the number of pigs released maintained a rapid year-on-year increase. Pig prices fell sharply year on year due to lower demand in Q3 than in previous years. The company's Q3 revenue was -20.13% year-on-year, dragging down the revenue growth rate for the first three quarters (-3.98% for the first three quarters of 23, and +6.75% for 23H1). In the first three quarters/Q3 companies listed 168.08/527,900 pigs, +100.09%/+49.11% year-on-year; achieved pig sales revenue of 28.54/1,042 billion yuan, +70.56%/+28.67% over the same period; the average published weight was 111.29/123.91 (kg/head), +0.42%/+26.15% over the same period; the average sales price was 15.25/15.93 (yuan/kg), with a year-on-year growth rate of -15.12%/- 31.60%, which is at the leading level in the industry.
The gross margin declined markedly in the first three quarters of the 23 years, and expenses such as equity incentives increased, leading to an increase in the expense ratio. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 23 quarters/Q3 was 0.26%/3.24%, year-on-year -4.36pct/-6.03pct, mainly due to lower pig prices in '23. Furthermore, due to low pig prices in '23, the company undertook asset impairment on stored expendable biological assets and stored pork. The total asset impairment loss for the first three quarters was 100 million yuan, which had a certain impact on profits. On the cost side, the company's fee rate for the first three quarters was 6.78%, +1.24pct year on year. The increase in the cost rate was mainly due to the increase in the company's equity incentive expenses and R&D project investment. The company's management expense rate/R&D rate for the first three quarters was +0.92pct/+0.16pct year-on-year, respectively. Overall, low pig prices and increased costs such as equity incentives have put pressure on the company's profitability in the short term.
Investment suggestions: Due to the slump in pig prices in the first three quarters, the company's revenue expectations for 23 years were slightly lowered. The company is expected to achieve net profit of -2.70/4.26/854 million yuan in revenue from 23 to 25, respectively, -408.0%/+257.6%/+100.6% from the previous year. Considering that the number of pigs released by the company is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the next two years, in combination with pig prices in Zhejiang Province, it has a certain premium advantage and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: livestock and poultry sales fall short of expectations, cost increases exceeding expectations, poor consumption, risk of the epidemic, etc.