核心创新在研产品KC1036 积极拓展儿童用药适应症。2023 年9 月28 日公司公告显示，核心创新产品KC1036 儿童用药II期临床研究申请已经获得CDE受理。KC1036 是公司自主研发且具有完全自主知识产权的AXL、VEGFR、CSF-1R 等多靶点受体酪氨酸激酶抑制剂，已在食管癌、胃癌、胸腺癌、胆管癌、肺腺癌等多种实体肿瘤中观察到显著的临床疗效且安全性好，患者依从性高，为开发其它适应症奠定了良好的基础。Incident: On October 27, Kangchen Pharmaceutical released its 2023 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 720 million yuan (+22.46% year-on-year), net profit of 149 million yuan (+43.37% year-on-year), net profit of 149 million yuan (+43.37% year-on-year), and net profit of 138 million yuan (+146.74% year-on-year). Among them, the Q3 quarter alone achieved operating income of 269 million yuan (+24.40% year-on-year), net profit of 56 million yuan (+157.69% year-on-year), and net profit of 53 million yuan (+146.44% year-on-year) after deducting non-return net profit of 53 million yuan (+146.44% yoy).
2023Q3 revenue increased steadily, gross margin increased sharply, and sales management expenses declined significantly year over year.
The increase in operating income, combined with an increase in gross margin and a decrease in the period's expense ratio, led to a sharp increase in operating profit in the third quarter. 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 270 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% over the previous year. We believe it mainly benefited from the company's core blood coagulant product “Suling”, which continued to increase after the medical insurance contract renewal limit was lifted. The gross profit margin was 90.5% (y-o-y +4.9pct), the sales expense ratio was 46.4% (y-7.4pct), and the management expense ratio was 8.9% (y-3.1 pct).
The core innovation product under development, KC1036, is actively expanding pediatric medication indications. According to the company announcement on September 28, 2023, the core innovative product KC1036 pediatric drug phase II clinical study application has been accepted by CDE. KC1036 is a multi-target receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor such as AXL, VEGFR, and CSF-1R independently developed by the company and has completely independent intellectual property rights. It has observed significant clinical efficacy and good safety in various solid tumors such as esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, thymus cancer, bile duct cancer, lung adenocarcinoma, etc., and has high patient compliance, laying a good foundation for the development of other indications.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We forecast that the company's revenue for 2023-2025 will be 1,106 billion yuan/1,331 million yuan/1,553 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.6%/20.3%/16.7%, respectively, and net profit of 166 million yuan/205 million yuan/244 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rate is 63.5%/23.5%/19.0%, corresponding to PE 38/31/26 times. The company's revenue has maintained steady growth, and excellent performance on the profit side. Many innovative R&D pipelines such as KC1036 have entered critical clinical stages. The commercialization prospects are promising. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of product sales falling short of expectations, risk of failure or progress of new drug development falling short of expectations, risk of industry policy changes, risk of increased market competition, etc.
