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博纳影业(001330)2023年三季报点评:影院业务较快复苏 内容储备丰富

Bona Pictures (001330) 2023 Three Quarter Report Review: Cinema Business Is Recovering Faster, Content Reserve Is Rich

西部證券 ·  Nov 1, 2023 00:00

Incidents: The company released its 2023 three-quarter report. Q3 achieved operating income of 472 million yuan, an increase of 55.72% over the previous year, net profit of 29 million yuan, an increase of 118.95% over the previous year; in the first three quarters, it achieved operating income of 1,321 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.59%, and net loss of 236 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 377.22%.

The summer movie market is picking up at an accelerated pace, and the cinema business is recovering relatively quickly. According to Cat's Eye Pro, since the beginning of this year, the movie market has continued to recover. The total box office for July '23 was 8.72 billion yuan (including service fees, same below), breaking the July box office record in film history; the cumulative box office for the '23 summer season reached 20.62 billion yuan, a record high. Bona Film Investment had a cumulative box office of 394 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 129% over the previous year, ranking 7th in the national film industry, up 1 place from the previous year, with a market share of 2%; Bona Cinemas had a cumulative box office of 413 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 140% over the previous year, and the company's cinema business achieved a relatively rapid recovery.

Increased gross margin and optimized cost control. In the third quarter, the company's gross margin increased by 14.1 pct year on year to 32.2%; the sales expense ratio was 1.5%, down 10.5 pct year on year, down 9.6 pct from month to month; and the management expense ratio was 14.9%, narrowing 7.2 pct year on year, down 2.3 pct month on month.

High quality and scarce main theme movie casting method, rich content reserves. The company will continue to make full use of the operational advantages of main theme films and continue to enrich the means of expression of main theme films. The reserve includes projects such as “Ami Joon”, “Burst Point”, “Go Wild, Dad”, “Sword Tip”, “Boyhood”, “Legend”, “Operation Red Sea 2”, “Outsmart the Great Hushan”, “Samsangdui: Apocalypse of the Future”, and “Warrior”. Among them, “Sword Edge” (spy film, starring Zhang Yi, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin Chaoxian, starring Zhang Jiahui, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin Chaoxian, starring Zhang Jiahui, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin Chaoxian, starring Zhang Jiahui, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin Chaoxian, starring Zhang Jiahui, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin Chaoxian, starring Zhang Jiahui, etc.) is scheduled for November 24. “Burst Point” (directed by Lin (Directed by Ji Li, starring Jackie Chan, etc., has already died) as a sequel to the “Myth” story, all of which are worth looking forward to.

Profit forecast: The company's revenue for the year 23-25 is expected to be 21.18/29.82/3,945 billion yuan, YoY +5.3%/40.8%/32.3% respectively, net profit of 0.33/4.12/628 billion yuan, YoY +146.0%/1142.5%/52.4%, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: policy regulation risk; risk of star failure; box office falls short of expectations; screening pace falls short of expectations

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