occurrences
The company released its 2023 three-quarter report on October 27, 2023. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 7.49 billion yuan, +18.0% year on year; net profit to mother of 1.03 billion yuan, -1.2% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 750 million yuan, -22.8% year on year.
On a quarterly basis, in the 23Q3 single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, +58.0%; net profit to mother of 210 million yuan, -36.1% month-on-month and -12.9% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 68.04 million yuan, -75.4% month-on-month and -71.2% year-on-year.
Comment:
The decline in industry fan prices affects the company's gross profit margin. The company's gross margin in 2023Q3 was 14.9%, -5.8pct month-on-month. According to Goldwind Technology's performance presentation materials, the average bid price for wind turbines in the entire market in September 2023 was 1,553 yuan/kw, and the average bid price for fans was running at a low level.
Fluctuations in investment income caused fluctuations in Q3 performance, and the company's operating conditions were good after excluding the impact on investment income. The company's net profit for Q3 was 210 million yuan, a significant decrease from month to month. Part of the reason was a sharp decrease in net investment income. Net investment income for 2023Q2 and 2023Q3 was 385 million yuan and 95 million yuan, respectively. The company's investment income is related to the transfer of wind farms. If investment income is excluded, the 2023Q3 adjusted net profit was 120 million yuan, reaching the highest point in a single quarter in the first three quarters, and the company's fan business is running well.
New large megawatt products have been launched, and offshore wind power continues to break through. At the 2023 Wind Energy Exhibition, the company unveiled the world's largest onshore 15MW wind turbine and 13/16MW offshore wind turbine, continuing to break through the development path of large megawatt units. Among them, the company has been able to equip the 15MW wind turbine with a self-designed generator and blades. The company has now set up a marine marketing team mainly located north of the Yangtze River to achieve order breakthroughs as soon as possible.
Based on the long term, we actively plan overseas markets. The gross margin of overseas markets is higher than that of domestic markets, and the company is actively expanding into Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa. The company will explore overseas markets through two methods (1) self-operated channels, establish the company's own international marketing company to explore the market; and (2) use overseas sales channels of the company's shareholders.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit to be 14.3, 20.0, and 3.11 billion yuan, respectively, up -13.3%, 39.9%, and 55.8% year-on-year. The market value as of November 1 corresponds to a 23-24 PE of 25.1 and 18.0 times, maintaining an “incremental” rating.
Risk factors: Risk of wind power development falling short of expectations, risk of fluctuating raw material prices, risk of increased industry competition.