Daquan Energy released its 2023 performance report. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 12.878 billion yuan, -47.81%, net profit of 5.115 billion yuan, -66.09%; 23Q3 companies achieved operating income of 3,553 billion yuan, -57.38%, and -20.48% month-on-month, achieving net profit of 689 million yuan, -87.61%, and -54.53% month-on-month.
Polysilicon shipments are in line with expectations. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's polysilicon production reached 136,800 tons, +36.67% year-on-year; in the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's polysilicon sales volume was 141,000 tons, +27.93% year-on-year, and sales volume expanded rapidly. Among them, Q3 achieved production of 57,700 tons, +27.28% over the previous year, and sales volume of 63,300 tons, +22.72% over the previous year. In terms of production capacity, the company has now formed an annualized polysilicon production capacity of 205,000 tons. After the second phase in Inner Mongolia starts production in the second quarter of '24, the company will have a production capacity of 305,000 tons.
The company expects production of 59,000 to 620,000 tons in the fourth quarter, and achieve annual production of 1996-199,000 tons.
The proportion of N-type silicon materials is rising rapidly. With the advent of the era of N-type battery and module technology, demand for upstream N-type silicon wafers and N-type silicon materials has been stimulated. As one of the main producers of high-purity N-type silicon materials, the company continued to have a stable supply of N-type silicon materials and achieved rapid release in the third quarter, and the sales share of N-type silicon materials increased exponentially.
Company costs continue to fall. The company's Q3 sales cost has been reduced to 47.77 yuan/kg, and the unit cash cost is 41.62 yuan/kg. As Inner Mongolia's new production capacity continues to reduce average costs, the company's full cost is expected to fall within 50 yuan/kg in the future, with sufficient cash on hand, and has a strong advantage throughout the cycle. As of the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's balance ratio was 13.45%, which is at a low level. At the same time, the company's monetary capital was 20.674 billion yuan. The good financial situation is expected to lead the company through the cycle.
Investment advice: We estimate that the company's net profit for the year 23-25 will be 59.36/33.22/4.707 billion yuan, respectively, -69.0%/-44.0%/41.7% year-on-year, and the corresponding EPS is 2.77/1.55/2.19 yuan. Maintain the “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition heightens risk, and company costs fall less quickly than expected risk