营业成本及费用提升，短期业绩承压。302023公司毛利率3.6%，同比下降 18.2pct，毛利率显著下滑或由于本地生活直播的部署，拉低了整体互联网营销业务毛利水平，以及互联网广告代理业务規模和收入较上年同期大幅增加，相应流量采买成本增加。销售费用率 3.9%，同比提升 0.4pct；研发费用率 1.6%，同比下降 0.1pct；管理费用率 11.8%，同比提升5.3%，主要系公司继续加大业务拓展力度，相应人工费用及差旅费用增加以及股权激励确认费用增加所致。Brief performance review
On October 30, 2023, the company disclosed its Q3 results. Q3 achieved revenue of 1,181 billion yuan, -4.39% year-on-year; realized net profit of 242 million yuan, -351.86%; net profit after deduction of net profit of 242 million yuan, -374.71% year-on-year. The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 3.444 billion yuan, 13.42% year-on-year, and net profit was 450 million yuan, or -318.81% year-on-year.
Management analysis
Operating costs and expenses have increased, and short-term performance is under pressure. The gross profit margin of the 302023 company was 3.6%, down 18.2pct from the previous year. The gross margin declined significantly or due to the deployment of live streaming of local life, the overall gross profit level of the Internet marketing business was lowered, and the scale and revenue of the Internet advertising agency business increased significantly compared to the same period last year, and the corresponding traffic procurement costs increased. The sales expense ratio was 3.9%, up 0.4 pct year on year; R&D expense ratio was 1.6%, down 0.1 pct year on year; and management expense ratio was 11.8%, up 5.3% year on year, mainly due to the company's continued increase in business development efforts, corresponding increases in labor costs and travel expenses, and the increase in equity incentive confirmation costs.
Continue to be deeply involved in live e-commerce. The company is actively entering the field of non-standard clothing, cooperating with hundreds of experts in the category, and watching the traffic matrix extend from the head to the middle waist.
Since 202302, the company has increased the development of local lifestyle businesses. In terms of non-standard apparel categories, the company has built Yuanwang clothing industry chain bases in Hangzhou, Shuzhou, Hubei and Tianmen, Hubei, etc., to form Yuanwang Fuyuan clothing pallets. “Yuanwang X27 Theme Park”, a new “online+offline” commercial complex, is about to land in Linping, Hangzhou, and has reached in-depth cooperation with more than 200 clothing brands. From September 26th to 27th, the Double Eleven Shopping Carnival will be held at Yuanwang X27 theme park.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to weak consumption recovery, a decline in gross profit due to the company's layout of live broadcasts of local life, and the need for moderate investment in the early stages of Al applications. We adjusted the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to 4.702 billion yuan, 5.655 billion yuan, and 6.927 billion yuan respectively. Net profit was -526 million yuan, -361 million yuan, and -100 million yuan respectively, and EPS was -0.565 yuan, -0.388 yuan, and -0.107 yuan respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
Consumption recovery falls short of expectations; category expansion and multi-platform operation results fall short of expectations; loss of leading anchors; live e-commerce policy risks; risk of impairment of goodwill and inventory; application of new technology falls short of expectations, etc.
