经济复苏，利润端亏损收窄。前三季度，公司利润端表现良好，亏损较同期显著收窄，毛利率提升4.3pct 至47.93%，单三季度毛利率同比提升4.83pct 至45.06%，盈利能力持续上行。现金流方面，得益于公司产品云化的逐步推进，硬件采购业务较上年同期有所减少，公司前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量净流出1.22 亿元，较上年同期减少1.39 亿元。费用端，前三季度公司销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率同比+1.27pct/-0.02pct/-0.89pct，整体控费良好。Matters:
On October 30, the company released its 2023 three-quarter report. The first three quarters of this year achieved operating income of 1,585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.13%; net profit of 14.418 million yuan, an increase of 27.05% over the previous year; net profit of 5.214 million yuan was deducted, and a loss of 209.02 million yuan for the same period last year.
Commentary:
The economy is recovering, and losses on the profit side have narrowed. In the first three quarters, the company's profit side performed well, and losses narrowed significantly compared to the same period. Gross margin increased 4.3 pct to 47.93%, and gross margin increased 4.83 pct to 45.06% year on year in the third quarter, and profitability continued to rise. In terms of cash flow, thanks to the gradual advancement of the company's products in the cloud, the hardware procurement business decreased compared to the same period last year. The net cash flow from the company's operating activities in the first three quarters was 122 million yuan, a decrease of 139 million yuan from the same period last year. On the cost side, the company's sales expense rate/management expense rate/R&D expense ratio was +1.27pct/-0.02pct/-0.89pct year-on-year in the first three quarters, and overall fee control was good.
Q3 is developing well, and Q4 is expected to continue. In the third quarter alone, the company achieved operating income of 658 million yuan, an increase of 2.44% over the previous year. It has reversed the downward trend. Net profit of net profit narrowed from a loss of 23.2621 million yuan in the same period last year to a loss of 7.89 million yuan, and deducted non-net profit narrowed to a loss of 24.624 million yuan compared to the same period last year to a loss of 12.2943 million yuan, verifying that downstream is gradually recovering. With the further recovery of the alcohol travel industry, driving downstream customer investment in informatization to accelerate, Q4 is expected to continue the good trend of Q3, and development can be expected throughout the year.
SEP is in the process of going live in bulk. As of August, Shiji Enterprise Platform has successfully launched IHG's 100th hotel, covering more than 60 cities. At present, the number of hotels launched on the Shiji Enterprise Platform has exceeded 30 every month. The Peninsula Hotel, Langham's luxury hotels, and IHG's hotels in China are all in the process of launching in large numbers.
Investment suggestions: Considering the pace of downstream recovery, we have adjusted our profit forecast. The estimated operating income for 2023-2025 is 2,749 billion yuan, 3.130 billion yuan, and 3,568 billion yuan (the original forecast values for 23-25 were 2,905 billion yuan, 3.267 billion yuan, and 3.667 billion yuan), and the corresponding growth rates were 5.9%, 13.9%, and 14.0% respectively. In terms of valuation, referring to the valuation levels of comparable companies, we gave 15xPS for 2023, with a target price of about 15.1 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: There is uncertainty about the recovery of downstream customer demand; uncertainty about the overseas expansion process; and uncertainty about the promotion of new products.
