The company reported that its operating income from January to September in 2023 was 42.549 billion yuan, an increase of 11.47 percent over the same period last year, and its net profit was 6.052 billion yuan, an increase of 46.7 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income of Q3 was 16.182 billion yuan, an increase of 4.56% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 2.715 billion yuan, an increase of 52.74% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The water supply of Yalong River continued to improve in the third quarter, and electricity prices continued to rise at a high rate.
In terms of electricity, from July to August 2023, the Yalong River generated 16.55 billion kilowatt hours, a decrease of 27% compared with the same period last year, and the rate of decline has narrowed compared with Q2 in 23 years. Water has further improved in September, with electricity generation of 10.51 billion kilowatt-hours in September alone, an increase of 50.6 percent over the same period last year. The rapid increase in electricity in September led to 61.951 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generated by the Yalong River from January to September. Electricity price: the Yalong River hydropower price continued to rise in the third quarter. From July to September, the average online electricity price of Yalong River was 0.289 yuan / kWh, up 14.68% from January to September compared with the same period last year. From January to September, the electricity price rose 12% to 0.309 yuan / kWh. In the short term, the Yalong River will improve the increase in superimposed electricity prices, providing the basis for the company's performance growth in the third quarter. In the long run, the future increment of the Yalong River can be expected. In terms of hydropower, Kara and Mengdigou power stations have been built; in terms of wind power and photovoltaic, Cora photovoltaic power stations and Labashan wind farms have been put into production since the beginning of this year, and the installed scale of Zhalashan photovoltaic power station under construction has reached 1.17 million kilowatts. It is the largest new energy project installed in Sichuan Province, and the construction of a demonstration base for green and clean renewable energy in the Yalong River Basin will continue to bring performance increments to the Yalong River.
Market coal prices fell in the third quarter, and thermal power profits were repaired.
In the third quarter of 2023, the company's thermal power generation completed 17.094 billion kWh, + 7.6% compared with the same period last year; the feed-in price was 0.474 yuan / kWh, down 5.39% from the same period last year, mainly affected by the high base of market-oriented electricity price in Fujian region in the same period last year (the average feed-in price of Fujian Huaxia Power Plant and Meizhou Bay Power Plant decreased by 11.2% and 12.2% respectively in the third quarter compared with the same period last year). Due to the decline in market coal prices in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, thermal power costs have greatly improved, driving the company's thermal power sector performance repair, driving Q3 company to return home net profit + 52.7% year-on-year.
The installed scale of new energy has increased steadily.
The company's new energy installed capacity increased by 63.32 million kilowatts from July to September, and new energy installed capacity increased by 1.4675 million kilowatts in the first three quarters, driving the company's wind power and photovoltaic power generation to increase by 33.35 percent and 36 percent respectively in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
The growth of new energy installation will bring stable performance increment to the company.
Investment suggestion: the steady growth of Yalong River Hydropower performance and the profit improvement of thermal power sector in the second and third quarters, adjust the profit forecast, the company's net profit in 2023-2025 is expected to be 75.4 shock 85.2 / 9.07 billion yuan (the previous value is 67.04 shock 76.4 shock 81.8), corresponding to PE12.1/10.7/10x, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: lower power demand, lower power generation due to less water, lower utilization hours of Liangyang power station, reduction of electricity price, etc.