The June sixth upgrade came to an end, gradually cutting into the active inventory phase, the growth rate of wholesale sales in the car market is still low, but the inventory is relatively low, and it is expected that it will start to grow in July compared with the same period last year. In June 2019, the consumption boom of the automobile industry was still low, with a total wholesale sales of 2.056 million vehicles nationwide, a year-on-year decline of-9.6% from-16.4% in May, while the commercial / passenger vehicle sector fell by 17.8% and 7.8% respectively. It is expected that as the national fifth destocking comes to an end for the time being, the follow-up will enter the active Canada six inventory cycle, and the wholesale end will turn to a high correct quality in July. According to the same month-on-month measurement, narrow passenger cars are expected to increase by 3.2% in July compared with the same period last year. Passenger car insurance sales in June were 2.09 million, up 39.9 per cent from 1.5 million a year earlier, according to the China Insurance Association. The retail data have become positive significantly, thanks to the rush to install the upgraded and upgraded countries. According to the comparison between the upgraded and non-upgraded areas, the overdraft of about 35-400000 vehicles is expected to be absorbed by retail sales from July to August, with a year-on-year growth rate of-30% and-4%. Since September, the year-on-year growth rate from September to December is 3%, 7%, 13% and 16%, respectively.

In July, the discount rate of each model has a decreasing trend, especially the discount rate of SUV. According to Shenwan's latest discount rate crawler database, the car sales discount rate in July still ranks first, with an average discount rate of 11.17%, an increase of 1.7pct over June. The discount rate of medium-sized vehicles is at the top, and the discount range is basically more than 6%. The top three models with discount rates are minicars / compact cars, with discount rates of 11.17%, 10.09% and 9.22%, respectively. In terms of SUV, the discount rate showed a significant downward trend. In compact SUV/, the discount rate of large SUV/ and large SUV decreased by 0.24/0.56/0.16pct, respectively, reaching 6.66%, 3.87% and 1.39% respectively. In July, the discount rate of about 2x3 brands decreased slightly, while that of SAIC, Wuling and other independent brands decreased significantly. Among themChangan Automobile(discount change rate-0.24pct), FAW Volkswagen (- 0.35pct), Shangtong Wuling (- 0.98pct), FAW Toyota (- 1.74pct), SAIC Volkswagen (- 4.32pct), SAIC GM Cadillac (- 4.41pct) and other discount rates increased to decreased this month from last month.

In the second quarter of 2019, the market capitalization of automobile heavy positions accounted for 1.91% of all heavy positions in the stock market, a month-on-month decrease in 0.39pct, still at an all-time low. Among them, the proportion of positions in the auto parts industry declined the most, falling 0.25pct to 1.14% in the second quarter. In addition, the automobile industry accounts for 0.67%, other transportation equipment Ⅱ industry accounts for 0.01%, and automobile service Ⅱ industry accounts for 0.08%. In the second quarter of 2019, the list of the top 20 auto industry fund heavy position stocks has not changed much compared with the previous quarter, showing three main characteristics:

The position of ① vehicle leader rose slightly, under the expectation of marginal recovery of market sales and industry profit repair.Great Wall MotorThe total market value of the position increased by 8% compared with the first quarter of 1919.SAIC GroupThe position also improved slightly, with the proportion of positions in heavy stocks rebounding to 0.31%.Jiangling MotorsThe ranking of positions rose by 2 places.

② parts company except for some companies with endogenous growth (Xingyu co., Ltd.There has been a decline in positions outside. Affected by the overall downturn of the industry in the first half of the year, the profits of spare parts companies generally declined in the second quarter, and the ranking of positions also declined, such asFuyao Glass Industry Group、Baolong Technology、Top Group等。

③ heavy truck industry chain positions have declined, such asWeichai PowerThe total market capitalization of the position is 3.4 billion, down 20% from the previous month, but it still maintains the ranking of the second largest fund heavy position in the auto industry.Weifu high-tech、China heavy truckThe rankings also slipped slightly. In addition, companies with their own deterministic growth, such as Xingyu shares, rose significantly this quarter.

Core risk: discounts in the car market and sales data improved less than expected

Investment advice:

① retail has about 35-400000 overdrafts, which are expected to be absorbed in July-August, so there is likely to be a year-on-year decline of-30 per cent or-4 per cent in July-August. However, since September, sales are expected to grow by 3%, 7%, 13% and 16% respectively from September to December.

② wholesale data for July can still achieve positive growth of 3 per cent, even if they are flat on a month-on-month basis. With the recovery of the industry and the decline of the discount rate in the process of becoming a regular wholesale, the third-quarter profit statement is expected to be repaired, and leading companies will continue to be recommended.Huayu Automobile, Xingyu Co., SAIC,Love Cody、Desai Xiwei。