Main points of investment
Event: the company released its third quarterly report for 2023, 2
3Q3 realized operating income of 13.759 billion yuan, year-on-year + 0.01%, net profit of 798 million yuan, year-on-year-19.98%, and non-return net profit of 757 million yuan, year-on-year-21.25%.
Split of volume and price of express delivery business: the market share of 22Q3/22Q4/23Q1/23Q2/23Q3 and express delivery business is 15.9%, 15.7%, 16.6%, 16.3%, 15.6%, respectively, and the volume growth rate is 8.5%, 2.0%, 20.0%, 21.7% and 14.1%, respectively. 23Q3 share is basically stable (year-on-year slightly lower 0.4PCT, month-on-month slightly lower 0.7PCT). The single-ticket revenue / single-ticket period fee of 23Q3 express service is 2.334max 0.064 yuan, month-on-month-0.013pm 0.005 yuan, year-on-year-0.200 qure 0.011 yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the price competition in the industry has continued to deepen, and the competition in the third quarter is relatively fierce. Although Yuantong's share is not outstanding for the time being, it has maintained the bottom line of price and profit, achieved the sound performance of the head enterprise, and the profit gap between Yuantong and its follow-up peers is still widening.
Look back:
1. Industry perspective: 1) the current economic express delivery competition has entered the second half, and the pattern needs to be clearer after the competition continues to deepen, and the head enterprise has a stronger competitive advantage; 2) in history, there have been three important opportunities for express delivery:
Embrace e-commerce, direct transit center, transfer center automation, the future network digitization is expected to become the industry's fourth opportunity, enterprises that seize the opportunity are expected to increase their advantages in the competition.
2. From the company's point of view: the company's competitive advantage is expected to be improved. 1) the price competition in the industry has been effective this year, and the tail express cash flow pressure is greater, and the head is more restrained from price increases in the peak season, which will help to strengthen the results of this year's competition. lay the foundation for the improvement of the pattern next year; 2) the company's headquarters and franchisees cost efficiency, courier delivery efficiency, customer experience, etc., through the headquarters lean production, franchisee "Project 1", customer butler and other differentiation measures are expected to continue to improve. The company's share performance is expected to strengthen next year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we adjust the company's profit forecast and expect the company's annual return net profit in 23-24-25 to be RMB 3629Universe 4233,800,863 respectively. (Q4 and the year after next year net profit assume conservative, but assume that the share increases faster), year-on-year-7.4% scar "16.6% picks" 14.9%, corresponding to the closing price on October 31 PE 12.9% 11.0 / 9.6 times. We expect that the current market capitalization of the sector has basically reflected the pessimistic expectation that price competition affects performance and the pattern is vague. Next year, PE is only 11 times. In the future, even if single-ticket profits still have a few cents to fluctuate, cautious expectations of performance have been reflected in the early stages. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the great potential of the continuous strengthening of Yuantong digital and the improvement of competitive advantage, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: other cost changes such as manpower and packaging materials, higher-than-expected fluctuations in express prices, uncertainty of the impact of relevant policies, decline in air freight rates, etc.