What happened: the company released its third-quarter report in 2023.
23Q3 performance is under short-term pressure and Q4 performance is expected to accelerate. The third quarter of 2023: revenue 117 million, year-on-year increase of 26.3%, return net profit 15 million, down 28.1% year-on-year, deducting non-return net profit 14 million, down 26.3% year-on-year, gross profit margin of 60.2%, down 3.1pct, return net interest rate of 12.8%, down 8.7pct. In the first three quarters of 2023: revenue was 290 million, up 11.8% from the same period last year, net profit from home was 35 million, down 10.8% from the same period last year, deducting 23 million net profit from non-home, down 31.5% from the same period last year, gross profit margin was 63%, 1pct was down from the same period last year, and net profit from home was 4.9%, down 0.6pct from the same period last year.
The variety set of the preparation will be exchanged for quantity with price, and the eighth batch set will be implemented in July. San Nuo involves varieties: Atosiban and somatostatin. As of 2023H1, the company has developed 9 kinds of polypeptide preparations and obtained 13 production approvals in China. The company's preparations octreotide acetate injection, atoxiban acetate injection and somatostatin for injection all won the national collection standard, in which octreotide acetate collection was carried out in November 2022. Atosiban acetate and somatostatin collection were implemented in July 2023.
New capacity landing + CDMO potential commercial orders to help the company's long-term development. 1) New production capacity: the company's fund-raising project "Annual production Line Project of 395 kg Peptide API" is expected to reach the scheduled state of use in December 23. 2) potential commercialization order for CDMO: as of 23H1, the company's CDMO project Aboweitai has been successfully approved to enter the commercial stage, Batifeban injection is in the declared production stage, polyethylene glycol Essenapeptide injection and antimicrobial peptide PL-5 spray are in III phase clinical, with great commercialization potential, which is expected to contribute to the company's long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: as the leader of domestic polypeptide API and CDMO industry, the company has been ploughing the polypeptide industry chain for more than 20 years, and the downstream-driven API and CDMO business is expected to continue to increase volume. According to the performance of the company in the first three quarters, we have adjusted our profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 4.6%, 570%, 800 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 15%, 25%, 40% over the same period last year, and the net profit will be 0.65%, 10%, 140 million yuan, respectively, up 1.5%, 52%, 41%, and maintain the "Buy" rating.
Risk hints: capacity expansion is not as expected; API and CDMO business is not as expected; preparation prices and gross profit margin are lower.