手续费收入阶段性承压。经纪业务方面，1-9月A股合计成交额183.39万亿元，同比-3.55%；公司实现经纪业务手续费净收入28.73亿元，同比-20.23%，经纪业务收入随市场成交额下滑阶段性承压，略跑输行业平均水平。投行业务方面，1-9月市场股权融资规模合计9831.95亿元，同比-22.92%；公司实现投行业务手续费净收入30.11亿元，同比-19.86%，承销业务收入随市场景气度下滑有所减少，降幅与行业平均水平持平。资管业务方面，1-9月公司实现资管业务手续费净收入14.27亿元，同比-15.43%。另外，1-9月市场日均两融余额为15909.52亿元，同比-2.85%；公司实现利息净收入32.73亿元，同比-30.89%，跑输行业平均水平。Main points of investment:
What happened: the company recently released its third quarterly report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a total operating income of 22.574 billion yuan, + 19.20% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 4.362 billion yuan,-28.21% compared with the same period last year. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments:
The poundage income is under pressure in stages. In terms of brokerage business, the total turnover of A-shares from January to September was 183.39 trillion yuan,-3.55% compared with the same period last year; the company realized a net income of 2.873 billion yuan from brokerage fees,-20.23% from the same period last year, and the brokerage business income was under pressure with the decline in market turnover, slightly losing the industry average. In terms of investment banking business, the scale of equity financing in the market from January to September totaled 983.195 billion yuan,-22.92% compared with the same period last year; the company realized net income from investment banking fees of 3.011 billion yuan,-19.86% from the same period last year, and the income from underwriting business decreased with the decline of the market boom, which was the same as the industry average. In terms of asset management business, the company achieved a net income of 1.427 billion yuan from January to September,-15.43% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the average daily financial balance of the market from January to September was 1.590952 trillion yuan,-2.85% compared with the same period last year; the company achieved a net interest income of 3.273 billion yuan,-30.89% compared with the same period last year, which outperformed the industry average.
Revenue from proprietary business has greatly increased compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized a total of 4.112 billion yuan in net investment income and fair value changes, which was + 316.62% compared with the same period last year. The rapid growth was mainly due to the increase in investment income in financial instruments.
ROE is constrained by a decline in net profit compared with the same period a year earlier. By the end of September 2023, the total assets of the company were 736.173 billion yuan,-0.79% compared with the same period last year; the total net assets of the company were 166.979 billion yuan, which was 2.61% compared with the same period last year, down 1.09% from the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading securities firm with significant scale advantages, with a significant improvement in self-management business in the first three quarters and a high year-on-year increase in investment income. It is expected to continue to benefit from a series of policies on active capital markets, with a good development trend. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2023 to 2024 are 0.54 yuan and 0.74 yuan respectively, corresponding to the PE valuation of 18.14 times and 13.18 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk hints: the risk of macroeconomic downturn and interest rate fluctuations; the sharp decline in stock-based turnover leads to a decline in brokerage business income; the sharp fluctuations in the market lead to greater gains and losses in investment income and fair value changes; the progress of capital market reform is not as expected; the risk of changes in corporate governance mechanism; credit default risk; the risk of tightening industry regulation; the risk of intensified industry competition.
