Core viewpoints

In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized revenue, homing net profit and net profit deducting non-homing net profit of 14.86 scarp 1.01max 0.95e, compared with the same period last year, + 32.9%, + 32.9%, 6.3% and 4.4%, and gross profit margin + 20.7%, year-on-year-2.0pct.

Among them, 23Q3 achieves revenue / homing / deduction of 5.15 2.2/-4.7pct 0.331e, year-on-year + 98.8% Universe 3.1% Universe 3.3%, month-on-month 12.9% Universe 5.7% Universe 0%, gross profit 17.9%, same / month-on-month. The fluctuation of quarterly acceptance structure affects the comprehensive profit level, and the gross profit margin of core equipment remains stable.

Event

In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized revenue, homing net profit and net profit deducting non-homing net profit of 14.86 scarp 1.01max 0.95e, compared with the same period last year, + 32.9%, + 32.9%, 6.3% and 4.4%, and gross profit margin + 20.7%, year-on-year-2.0pct.

Among them, 23Q3 realized revenue / return / deduction after 5.15, 0.331e, + 98.8%, 3.1%, 3.3%, 12.9%, 5.7%, 0% respectively.

Brief comment

Quarterly revenue structure fluctuations led to a third-quarter gross profit margin of 17.9%, a month-on-month decline of 4.7pct. Q1/Q2 equipment revenue accounts for about 70%, and gross profit margin is stable 28%. Q3 expects that the gross profit margin of equipment business is stable, but the proportion of revenue has declined on a quarterly basis; at the same time, the proportion of engineering and construction business has increased, and the gross profit margin of this part of the business is 30.4% from a historical level, and the quarterly fluctuation of the structure has led to a decline in the comprehensive gross profit margin.

Based on the advantages in the field of coal chemical industry, the company develops a new market for green hydrogen equipment. The company's traditional business provides gasifier, valve and engineering services for coal chemical hydrogen production, and the company develops the electrolytic cell equipment market based on its own technology, process and engineering advantages. the 1000 alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production system independently developed by the company has entered the system joint adjustment and long-period performance test, and is expected to contribute revenue in 24 years.

The delay in customer payment has led to a decline in the ring ratio of operating cash flow. The cash flow of Q3 operating activities is 65 million yuan, which is lower than that of Q2 (202 million yuan). It is-137 million yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the delay in the payment rhythm of customers.

Investment suggestion: the company's traditional business remains competitive in the market, and the new business is expected to contribute revenue in 24 years. It is estimated that the company's income in 2023, 24 and 25 is 28.00,33.15 and 3.918 billion yuan, and the corresponding return net profit is 1.90,2.28,310 million yuan, corresponding to PE39, 31 and 24 times. We are optimistic about the company's competitiveness in traditional business, as well as the long-term growth potential of hydrogen energy and environmental protection operations, and give a "buy" rating.

Risk analysis.

1) the capital expenditure of the coal chemical industry becomes weaker, and the company's proprietary equipment is mainly oriented to the gasifier and other products of the coal chemical industry. If the capital expenditure of the enterprises in the downstream coal chemical industry decreases, it will lead to a weakening demand for new capacity construction and affect the company's revenue contribution. Assuming that the order of the company's coal chemical industry changes in the same direction as the capital expenditure of the industry as a whole, the proprietary equipment products that account for 60-70% of the company's revenue will fluctuate in the same direction.

2) the introduction of new technology industrialization is not as expected, and the company's electrolytic cell products are currently in the testing stage. If the progress of introducing new products to the market in the future is not as expected, it will affect the company's revenue growth in new technology products. We expect that hydrogen-related equipment is expected to generate sales revenue from 2024, accounting for about 4-5% of the total revenue. If the test progress is based on the introduction of customers, it will affect this part of the revenue contribution.

3) the competition pattern of the industry is fierce, if the market competition of coal chemical equipment, electrolytic cells and other products intensifies, it may lead to a decline in prices and profits, and the performance of the company will have a certain impact.