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云南白药(000538):三季度延续良好趋势 扰动出清期待成长

Yunnan Baiyao (000538): Continued good trends in the third quarter disrupted expectations for growth

興業證券 ·  11/01/2023

Main points of investment

The third quarter continued the good trend of the first half of the year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income reached 29.689 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3 percent over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was 4.123 billion yuan, up 78.9 percent over the same period last year. The net profit from non-return to the mother was 3.853 billion yuan, an increase of 42.46 percent over the same period last year. The net cash flow generated by operating activities was 2.59 billion yuan, up 33.33 percent over the same period last year. 2023Q3 realized operating income of 9.379 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 5.4 percent over the same period last year, and net profit of 1.295 billion yuan, an increase of 61.05 percent over the same period last year, deducting 1.116 billion yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 6.28 percent over the same period last year. The operating level of the third quarter continues the good growth trend of the first half of the year.

The trading financial assets are basically cleared, returning to the performance at the operational level. In the first three quarters of 2023, the gross profit margin was 27.37%, down from the same period last year, the net profit rate was 13.89%, the year-on-year increase in 5.93pct, the rate of sales expenses, the rate of sales expenses, the rate of management expenses, the rate of management expenses, the rate of research and development expenses, and the rate of R & D expenses were 27.37%, 13.89%, 11.3%, 1.87%, 0.74% and 0.74%, respectively. 0.04pct. The non-recurrent profit and loss of Q3 in a single quarter mainly includes the profit and loss of changes in fair value, the investment income of 146 million yuan from the disposal of transactional financial assets and 73 million yuan of government subsidies included in the profits and losses of the current period, while the non-recurrent profit and loss of the same period last year was-246 million yuan. the company's trading financial assets were 287 million yuan at the end of the third quarter, down 88.13% from the beginning of the year. Mainly due to the disposal of all XIAOMI Group shares and some fund investments held by the company, non-recurrent disturbance factors have been gradually eliminated, which is expected to clearly reflect the profitability at the operational level.

Profit forecast and valuation: according to the operating situation, we adjust the profit forecast and expect to achieve a net profit of 45.27,50.49 and 5.565 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, an increase of 50.8%, 11.5% and 10.2% over the same period last year. Corresponding to the closing price on October 30, 2023, the PE is 20.11,18.03,16.36 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: changes in fair value gains and losses and impairment and other matters of disturbance, raw material price fluctuations, sales below expectations, increased market competition and other risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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