Short-term pressure on performance, stable operation quality
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue was RMB 593 million yuan,-10.6% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent was RMB 156 million yuan,-29.4% year-on-year; Q3 revenue was RMB 190 million yuan,-19.2% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent was RMB 48 million yuan,-41.2% year-on-year.
The decrease in revenue was mainly due to macroeconomic fluctuations and cyclical consumer electronics. In addition to the above reasons, the decrease in net profit was mainly due to the decrease in exchange gains. In the first three quarters, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 50.76%, maintaining a high and stable operating quality. Considering that downstream demand is still relatively weak, we have lowered the company's profit forecast, and it is estimated that the company's parent net profit will be 2.06/3.60/4.70 million yuan from 2023 to 2025.(Original value is 2.6/3.8/490 million yuan), EPS is 0.83/1.44/1.88 yuan, the current share price corresponds to PE is 30.5/17.5/13.4 times, the company as the domestic electronic assembly leader, strong performance toughness, while expanding the semiconductor packaging equipment to form a complete set of solutions to open the second growth curve, maintain the "buy" rating.
With the recovery of the industry and the iteration of large customer products, precision welding and machine vision equipment are expected to increase the demand of the consumer electronics industry gradually, and the cycle inflection point has arrived. In Q3 of 2023, the global PC and smartphone shipments narrowed year-on-year, and the global TWS headset shipments increased by 15% year-on-year in Q2 of 2023. The share of domestic brands in the wearable device market continues to increase, and AR, VR and other new products continue to have broad innovation space. The company is the core supplier of precision welding and machine vision of Company A. From wearing to tablet, laptop and mobile phone market, the market space will be fully opened. In 2021, the import volume of SMT automatic mounters in the mainland of China was 20986 sets, 15445 sets in 2022 and 8158 sets from January to September 2023, which continued to decline for three consecutive years. The expected rebound momentum in 2024 is strong, and the company's machine vision equipment and selective wave soldering are expected to increase in volume.
With the acceleration of SiC on-board process, power semiconductor packaging equipment is expected to usher in a peak demand. According to Yole forecast, the global market size of SiC power devices will increase from $1.09 billion in 2021 to $6.297 billion in 2027, with CAGR as high as 34%. New energy vehicles and wind storage are the main application markets of SiC in the future. The micro-nano silver sintering equipment independently researched and developed by the company has been successfully shipped to large customers. Meanwhile, IGBT wafer bonder, high-speed high-precision wafer bonder, formic acid welding furnace and other equipment have been successfully developed, forming a complete set of solution capabilities for power semiconductor packaging equipment.
Risk warning: demand recovery progress is less than expected, the company's semiconductor packaging equipment volume progress is less than expected.