Revenue in the first three quarters was flat compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.464 billion yuan (year-on-year-3.9%), net profit of 697 million yuan (year-on-year + 243.1%) and non-return net profit of 599 million yuan (year-on-year + 316.8%).
From a quarterly point of view, 2023Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved revenue of 748 million yuan, respectively, with revenue of 982 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, which was-14.1%, 2.7%, 0.5%, respectively, and the net profit of 2.05max, 305, and 187m, respectively, compared with the same period last year, and-24.9%, 299.2%, 125.8% respectively.
The rate of R & D expenditure has improved. The gross profit margin of 2023Q1-3 is 86.0% (year-on-year-0.97pp, compared with the full-year level of 2022 + 1.88pp) and net profit margin is 28.3% (year-on-year + 20.36pp, mainly affected by asset impairment in the same period last year). The sales expense rate is 34.3% (year-on-year-0.26pp), the management expense rate is 7.0% (year-on-year-0.33pp), the financial expense rate is-0.08% (+ 0.77pp), and the R & D expense rate is 14.5% (year-on-year-8.10pp), which is mainly due to the expense of COVID-19 vaccine Ph3 clinical expenditure in the same period last year.
Human diploid rabies vaccine has been approved to be put on the market and is rich in reserves in the research pipeline. The company's freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) was approved and put on the market in September 2023, using "5-needle method" and "2-1-1-1" (4-needle method). All have good safety, immunogenicity and immune persistence.
At present, the company has more than 30 items in the research pipeline, among which the live attenuated varicella vaccine is in the stage of applying for drug registration approval, and the registration site verification and GMP compliance test have been completed; the Sabin strain inactivated polio vaccine (Vero cell) has obtained the summary report of Ph3 clinical trials. Tetravalent HFMD vaccine, leprosy varicella vaccine, 20-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, recombinant herpes zoster vaccine, recombinant respiratory syncytial virus vaccine (RSV) and other varieties are used as medium-and long-term pipeline layout.
Investment suggestion: the company's heavyweight human diploid rabies vaccine has been approved to market, and is expected to be commercialized and contribute to the increase in performance in 2024; medium-and long-term pipeline reserves are rich, and many varieties are in the production and Ph3 clinical stage, which is expected to be introduced to the market in the next 2-3 years; the internationalization strategy has achieved initial results, and the 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide combined vaccine product has been licensed to be listed in Indonesia. According to the company's third-quarter report, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the net profit for 2023-2025 will be 10.02 pound 1,415,895 million (the previous value is 10.54 pound 15.57 billion 1.970 million), and the current share price is 34max 24exp 18x, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of product sales not up to expectations, the risk of failure in pipeline development, and so on.