share_log

明阳智能(601615):在手订单充沛 业绩略低于市场预期

Mingyang Intelligence (601615): Abundant orders in hand, performance slightly lower than market expectations

海通國際 ·  Oct 31, 2023 00:00

Affected by the installation, the growth rate of revenue and net profit was lower than expected. Recently, Mingyang Intelligence released its results for the third quarter of 2023. The company's 2023Q1-3 achieved 20.958 billion yuan in revenue, down 3.26% from the same period last year, of which 2023Q3 achieved 10.4 billion yuan in revenue, up 40% from the same period last year and 32.7% from the previous year. The company's 2023Q1-3 achieved a net profit of 1.228 billion yuan, down 65.56% from the same period last year, of which 2023Q3 realized a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 48.65% from the same period last year and 34.8% from the previous month.

2023Q3 offshore fan shipments narrowed, profitability is expected to usher in improvement. 2023Q1-3, foreign sales of fan 6912MW, increased by 20.91%, including onshore fan shipment 4937MW, year-on-year increase of 41.19%, offshore fan shipment 1975MW, down 11.05%. Shipments of 6-8MW models accounted for more than 40% of onshore fan shipments, 11MW shipments accounted for more than 68% of offshore fan shipments, gross profit margin was 15.78%, 5.54pct decreased With the acceleration of the trend of large-scale wind turbines, we expect the company's comprehensive gross margin to see marginal improvement in 2023Q4.

In-hand order 33.62GW, maintain the upward trend. 2023Q1-3 new orders 10.11GW, down 14% year-on-year, in-hand orders reached 34.62GW, an increase of 3.2GW over 2022. The bidding scale of 2023 Q1-3 fan reached 65.04GW, down 10.9% from the same period last year, which was narrower than that of the medium report, and the bidding scale remained high.

Vigorously expand the power plant operation business, smooth performance fluctuations. As of 2023Q3, the company's new energy plant grid-connected installed capacity is about 1636MW, and the installed capacity under construction is about 3929MW, an increase of 2293MW compared with the end of last year. The average utilization hours of 2023Q1-3 in operating power stations is 1677.88 hours, of which the average utilization hours of wind power is 1470.9 hours and that of photovoltaic power stations is 940.6 hours, which is slightly lower than the national average.

It is expected that the new installed scale of wind power in 2023 will be 70GW, which will maintain a high magnificent bearing. From January to September in 2023, the newly installed 33.48GW of wind power was increased by 74% compared with the same period last year. We expect the newly installed wind power to reach 70GW in 2023, an increase of 86% over the same period last year. Offshore wind power installation is not as expected in 2023 due to factors such as waterways. As these problems are gradually solved, we expect offshore wind power to increase gradually.

Profit forecast and investment advice: according to the company's orders and the winning price, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2023-2025 is 406.4max 5052max 595.59 billion, and the net profit returned to the parent is 3.99pm. According to the DCF model, we maintain the target price of 17.80RMB per share and maintain the "neutral" rating.

Risk tips: 1, wind power installation is not as expected; 2, the fierce market competition leads to a sharp decline in gross profit margin; 3, the price of raw materials has risen sharply.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment