Event: according to the company's three-quarter report in 2023, Q3 achieved operating income of 337 million yuan in 2023, + 21.01% compared with the same period last year; net profit of 73 million yuan, + 70.41%; and non-return net profit of 74 million yuan, + 96.11% over the same period last year. In 2023, Q1-3 achieved operating income of 875 million yuan, + 13.26% year-on-year; net profit of 174 million yuan, + 25.52%; and non-return net profit of 162 million yuan, + 30.28% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
23Q3's revenue and performance have increased steadily, with an improvement compared with the same period of last month. 23Q3's revenue is + 21.01% / quarter-on-month, respectively, and its net profit is + 70.41%-25.22% on a year-on-year basis. Considering the overall improvement in R & D direction, sales channels and product promotion since the beginning of this year, the company's revenue and performance in the first half of the year were respectively + 8.89% and 5.26% compared with the same period last year, resulting in a relatively lacklustre performance, mainly due to the fact that a series of measures failed to contribute to the performance in the current period; since 23Q3, as the company's above-mentioned measures gradually show its effect, the company's operating scale continues to expand, and revenue and performance growth increases gradually.
The profit level has improved significantly, mainly due to cost control and product structure optimization. 23Q3, the company's overall gross profit margin and net profit margin are 46.98% and 21.74% respectively, which is significantly higher than that of the same period in 2022 with a change of + 1.41/+6.31pct. From the point of view of cost control, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 23Q3 Company is 12.32%, 4.97%, 9.71%, 0.004%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The effect of cost control is obvious. Among them, the absolute value of the company's financial expenses decreased by 80.35% compared with the beginning of 2023, mainly due to the increase in exchange gains and losses during the reporting period. From the product structure point of view, the company has actively optimized the product structure in recent years, the main push of the EMS energy efficiency management platform has completed three product upgrade stages, the current EMS2.0 platform using design institute overlay industry for promotion, and the development of system agents for installation, debugging, after-sales and operation and maintenance, it is expected that the future revenue share is expected to continue to improve, driving the company's profitability. In addition, the company's EMS3.0 platform has completed the product research and development framework, and after the formal promotion, it is expected to further increase the company's unit customer income and profitability on the basis of the EMS2.0 platform.
Set to add 800 million to lead the layout of the microgrid blue ocean field. The company's main products include enterprise microgrid energy efficiency management system and products and electricity sensors. In July, 23, the company issued a plan to raise 800 million yuan from specific targets, mainly for R & D headquarters and enterprise microgrid system upgrading projects, enterprise microgrid product technical transformation projects and supplementary liquidity. Considering that the current microgrid penetration is relatively low and there are few business layout manufacturers, the company is expected to invest heavily in the microgrid field to have first-mover advantages and opportunities for our energy Internet industry, which has a broad space for growth in the future.
Profit forecast: the company provides energy efficiency management and power security solutions for enterprise microgrids. Under the background of dual control of energy consumption and the improvement of industrial and commercial electricity consumption, microgrid permeability is expected to increase rapidly. Considering the acceleration of the company's EMS2.0 products and the continuous improvement of EMS3.0 products, it is expected to support the company's profitability. We predict that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 2.36,3.39 and 460 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 26,18 and 13 times respectively. Considering that the company has continued to increase its investment in R & D and sales since the beginning of this year, but it will take some time for the high-margin EMS2.0 and 3.0 platforms to be promoted and fully reflected in the performance, we slightly lower the company's valuation and give it 28 times PE in 2023 (the original value is 35 times), corresponding to the target price of 30.73 yuan, maintaining the "hold" rating.
Risk hints: the risk that future performance growth is lower than expected may have a negative impact on valuation premium; the risk that policy is lower than expected; the risk that capacity increase is less than expected; the risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.