3Q23 homing net profit yoy+79%, maintains profit forecast and target price
China and Fujian Energy released three quarterly reports, 1-3Q23 achieved revenue of 1.105 billion yuan (yoy-6%), home net profit of 385 million yuan (yoy-15%), deduction of non-net profit of 367 million yuan (yoy-19%). Among them, 3Q23 realized revenue of 274 million yuan (yoy+7%,qoq-1%) and net profit of 58.32 million yuan (yoy+79%,qoq+10%). To maintain the profit forecast, we expect the company's 23-25 return net profit to be 7.5max 8.1 / 840 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.40Unix 0.42 Unix 0.44. The two high-quality assets of major shareholders (Pinghai Offshore Wind Power Phase III and Yongtai pumping) are expected to meet the prerequisites for asset injection and the new winning bid for offshore wind power projects to promote the company's medium-and long-term performance growth. Comparable company's 23-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 14x, giving the company a 23-year 14xPE with a target price of 5.6yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
3Q23 gross profit margin rose year-on-year, thanks to the scale effect of power generation growth is the core variable affecting the company's performance, the company's overall 3Q23 power generation year-on-year + 11%, including Fujian wind power year-on-year + 13%, Heilongjiang wind power year-on-year-16%. Considering that no new projects were put into production during the year, we expect the installed scale to be the same at the end of 23 as in June (95.73 million kilowatts). The company's 3Q23 gross profit margin rose 3.8pct compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the economies of scale brought about by electricity growth. The reduction in kilowatt-hour costs (yoy-8%) was greater than that in kilowatt-hour revenue (yoy-3%). In previous years, 4Q is usually a gale period in Fujian Province, we are optimistic that the company's 4Q23 performance has greatly increased compared with the previous year, but it still depends on the size of wind resources.
The third phase of Pinghai Bay is waiting to start the injection process, and Yongtai pumping is expected to meet the injection conditions. Fujian Investment Group, a major shareholder, promised during the major asset restructuring of Zhongmin Energy in 2019, the prerequisites for the injection of assets related to the group include: 1) stable production; 2) profitability within a complete fiscal year; 3) there are no compliance issues. The Group's Pinghai Offshore Wind Power Phase III project was put into production at the end of the 21st and has met the above prerequisites. The Yongtai pumped storage project of the Group has four units with a total of 1.2GW, which was put into full capacity on March 28, and we expect to meet the injection conditions in 24 years.
Risk hints: the construction of new projects lags behind; the result of subsidy verification is lower than expected; and the acquisition of new projects is not as expected.